What’s left of the welfare state after dastardly neoliberalism still lifts most out of poverty

Russians are surprisingly trusting of their politicians

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How Taxes Affect Investment Decisions For Multinational Firms

Women and Social Mobility – Key Facts

1. Today’s working women (henceforth described as “daughters”) have higher wages than their mothers – but do not have higher wages than their fathers. Men have higher wages than both their fathers and their mothers.

2. The poorest women are doing best. 80% of daughters raised in the bottom quintile have higher wages than their fathers did. (h/t Scott Winship)

3. “Men’s wages remain more important to increasing couples’ family income,” despite “women’s significant generational gains” …

4. Women who grew up in households where their mother did not work actually have the highest family incomes today—but not because they themselves earn more. Daughters’ individual incomes do not vary significantly by mother’s work status, but family income does—suggesting that daughters whose mothers didn’t work have higher earning husbands. (Catherine Rampell discovered this by asking Pew to split out their analyses by mothers’ labor choices.) Perhaps those raised in more traditional settings are more likely to replicate a traditional division of labor?

via via Women and Social Mobility: Six Key Facts | Brookings Institution.

 

A volatile depressed neighbour? Real American and Canadian GDP growth detrended, 1955-2013 – updated

Figure 1: Real GDP per American and Canadian aged 15-64, converted to 2013 price level with updated 2005 EKS purchasing power parities, 1955-2013

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Source: Computed from OECD Stat Extract and The Conference Board, Total Database, January 2014, http://www.conference-board.org/economics

Figure 2: Real GDP per American and Canadian aged 15-64, converted to 2013 price level with updated 2005 EKS purchasing power parities, 1.9 per cent detrended, 1955-2013

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Source: Computed from OECD Stat Extract and The Conference Board, Total Database, January 2014, http://www.conference-board.org/economics

A rising line in figure 2 is above trend rate growth; a flat line is trend growth of 1.9%; and a falling line is below trend growth.

Canada has a volatile ride in the post-war period after economic success up until 1975. Despite ups and downs the Canadian economy has been in a long-term decline since 1975. Growth as  rarely being at trend and was often below, sometimes sharply below trend.

None of these depressed periods in the Canadian economy were long enough to count as a great depression. Instead there was just a long-term decline.

Canada is next door to the USA and a member of the North American Free Trade Area (NAFTA) and its antecedents so its cannot blame distance nor small size for its decline in economic performance as some do in New Zealand.

Relative to the USA, Rao et al. (2006) and Sharp (2003) attributed the gap between the USA and Canada to less capital per Canadian worker, an innovation gap as shown by lower R&D expenditure in Canada, a smaller and less dynamic high technology sector in Canada, less developed human capital at the top end of the Canadian labour market, and more limited scale and scope economies in Canada.

These factors have been put forward, at one time or another, as the proximate causes of the New Zealand productivity gap with the USA. Identifying the barriers to higher Canadian productivity may offer fresh insights into removing similar productivity barriers in New Zealand.

Figure 3 suggests that the increase in tax revenues as a percentage of GDP from 30% to 35% at the same time as the Canadian economic boom came to an end and its economic decline began is worthy of further scrutiny. The strong economic recovery from 1995 onwards also  coincided with the decline tax revenues as a percentage  of GDP.

Figure 3: tax revenue as a percentage of GDP

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Source: OECD StatExtract

Housing affordability and land regulation around the globe

Auckland is up with London and New York in terms of housing unaffordability relative to median incomes. US cities with responsive land regulation don’t experience housing bubbles.

Glaeser and Gyourko summarised the findings of a number of studies  on land supply and housing prices:

Recent research also indicates that house prices are more volatile, not just higher, in tightly regulated markets …. price bubbles are more likely to form in tightly regulated places, because the inelastic supply conditions that are created in part from strict local land-use regulation are an important factor in supporting ever larger price increases whenever demand is increasing.

…. It is more difficult for house prices to become too disconnected from their fundamental production costs in lightly regulated markets because significant new supply quickly dampens prices, thereby busting any illusions market participants might have about the potential for ever larger price increases.

Via The Truth About the U.S. Housing Market | Seeking Alpha.

A short guide to the Middle East conflict

Full-time work on the minimum wage is enough to keep a NZ family out of poverty!

An OECD chart that shows New Zealand parents only need to work a little over 40 hours a week on the minimum wage to lift a family out of poverty in New Zealand.

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The figure above shows that a lone parent with two children needs to work about 25 hours a week stay out of poverty in 2013 in New Zealand Once taxes are taken into account as well as additional family benefits such as in-work tax credits. New Zealand is one of the easiest places in the world to get out of poverty by working part-time for a sole mother.

The figure above from the OECD shows that New Zealand couple with two children needs to work about 40 hours a week to stay out of poverty. Of course, what is poverty depends on the definition of the poverty line and in this case by the OECD, it is defined as 50% of the median wage after taxes and family benefits. Another common definition of poverty is earning less than 60% of the median wage

The minimum wage is $14.75 per hour in New Zealand while proposals for a living wage in New Zealand are now $19.25 an hour. The Labour Party wants to increase the minimum wage to $15 per hour.The Greens want to increase the minimum wage to the living wage.

Simon Chapple and Jonathan Boston pointed out in their excellent book last year on child poverty in New Zealand that full-time work by one parent and part-time work by the other in the same household is enough to lift families out of most  definitions of poverty:

Sustained full-time employment of sole parents and the fulltime and part-time employment of two parents, even at low wages, are sufficient to pull the majority of children above most poverty lines, given the various existing tax credits and family supports.

The best available analysis, the most credible analysis, the most independent analysis in New Zealand or anywhere else in the world that having a job and marrying the father of your child is the secret to the leaving poverty is recently by the Living Wage movement in New Zealand.

According to the calculations of the Living Wage movement, earning only $19.25 per hour with a second earner working only 20 hours affords their two children, including a teenager, Sky TV, pets, international travel, video games and 10 hours childcare. This analysis of the Living Wage movement shows that finishing school so your job pays something reasonable and marrying the father of your child affords a comfortable family life.

The OECD’s analysis also showed that incentives for New Zealanders to work more and earn more is better than in most countries in terms of what happens if they earn a wage increase.

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In New Zealand, when there is a 5% minimum wage increase, four percentage points  of that wage increase actually stays in the hands of the worker.

In some countries such as Australia, the USA  and UK, 60 to 80%of the minimum wage increase is gobbled up in reductions in benefits and taxes. At the same time, the minimum wage increase makes it less profitable for your employer to retain you so your job is more at risk.

The only explanation I have for why the Labour Party, NZ Greens and the living wage movement don’t highlight the success of the existing minimum wage in reducing family poverty in New Zealand is mass kidnappings.

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But for these abductions most fowl, I’m sure the Labour Party,  NZ  Greens and the living wage movement would be dancing in the street celebrating successes of capitalism and freedom in New Zealand in keeping families out of poverty through the minimum wage.

Income mobility in America

Nick Cohen gets to the nub of Labour’s vote winning problem

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Land use regulation knocks 10 points of US GDP!

Bloomberg Business highlighted a great new study by Enrico Moretti on power of the regulatory restrictions on land supply to destroy wealth.

Moretti focused on the impact that restrictions on land supply have on the ability of workers to move to higher productivity cities. Moretti is the second best urban economist working at the moment. The best is Ed Glaeser. Moretti concluded that

A limited number of American workers can have access to these very high-productivity cities

He concluded that a more efficient distribution would be “a general benefit for the entire economy.”

The secret of his analysis was to look at how different US cities, the high productivity cities, contributed to national economic growth. He then explore the implications of fewer and fewer workers been able to move to these cities to take advantage of the great productive potential. The barrier to them moving was high housing prices and high rents.

For example, labour productivity grew quickly in San Francisco, New York and San Jose overt 45-years. All of these cities are famous for their human capital-intensive industries including technology and finance. These cities weren’t America’s growth engine:

The reason is that the main effect of the fast productivity growth in New York, San Francisco, and San Jose was an increase in local housing prices and local wages, not in employment.

Despite the large difference in local GDP growth between New York, San Jose, and San Francisco and the Rust Belt cities, both groups of cities had roughly the same contribution to aggregate output growth.

The drivers of US growth between 1964 and 2009 were southern U.S. cities and 19 other large cities. These cities attracted many residents because of good weather and abundant supply of cheap housing.

The lesson both the US and for New Zealand, and Auckland in particular, is this reallocation of population away from the expensive cities with restricted land supply reduced national output because these population movements bring workers to cities "where the marginal product of labour is low."

In a technology boom town such as San Francisco, it is now what like New Zealand will be as Generation Rent runs its course – 65% of residents are renters:

Over the past year, the City and County of San Francisco boasted the second strongest labour market in the nation, adding 25,000 new jobs. Yet only 2,548 new housing units were permitted and even fewer were built.

Just think: 25,000 new workers and their families have been knocking on San Francisco doors, but there are new units for less than 10 percent of them. It is not surprising that apartment prices get bid up.

The war situation in Iraq and Syria

HT: Lorenzo M Warby

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Hypocritical Greens betray NZ sovereignty to US court decision but oppose investor state dispute settlement on sovereignty grounds

The Greens are happy to betray New Zealand’s sovereignty to a US court where New Zealand’s side of the story was not heard, New Zealand was not a litigant, New Zealand was not named in the proceedings and New Zealand had not agreed to waive its sovereign immunity under US law.

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The Greens on the other hand are hysterical about the prospect of New Zealand voluntarily submitting to investor state disputes settlement through an international treaty. International treaties normally are about trading in sovereignty: you give up some form of sovereignty return for something you value more.

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It is thoroughly hypocritical of the Greens to argue the New Zealand should bow down to a foreign court when that court rules in a way that it favours its ideological agenda but refuse to support the principle of international arbitration in circumstances where that may advance New Zealand’s national interests.

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At a minimum, New Zealand itself chose to give up its sovereignty if it agrees to investor state dispute settlement in a trade agreement. The decision was not imposed by a foreign court where it was not heard nor was a party.

Of particular concern to the Greens is international arbitration could "trump the public’s vote vote". New Zealand has repeatedly elected parties that support the alliance with America, and support a robust security and intelligence policy, including electronic surveillance as part of the war on terror.

The last week of the 2014 general election campaign was dominated by the Government Security Communications Bureau and its cooperation with the National Security Agency and the extent to which New Zealand security services engaged in electronic surveillance in New Zealand and abroad.

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The Greens want to subvert that democratic decision that has been repeated over many New Zealand elections about national security and foreign relations to defer to an American court when New Zealand didn’t even appear as a party.

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The US Court of appeal was deciding an issue of statutory interpretation of the Patriot Act. There was no constitutional issues at hand.

The Patriot Act expires in a month unless it is extended. Congress has ample opportunity to amend the renewed law to overturn the appeal court’s decision for the future operation of its security and intelligence laws.

The Greens want a Court of Appeal interpretation of the American Patriot Act to extend to New Zealand without a vote of the New Zealand people or the parliament having any say on whether to give up New Zealand’s sovereignty or waive sovereign immunity in American courts.

 

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Hillary Clinton Isn’t Inevitable

 Megan McArdle wrote a very good list of reasons why Hillary Clinton is not a certainty to be elected President:

  1. She’s old
  2. It’s not clear how far she’ll outperform Barack Obama with women.
  3. I doubt she’ll replicate Obama’s turnout among black voters.
  4. The Emerging Democratic Majority is questionable.
  5. She’s not a particularly good candidate – She has never won a tough election.
  6. All the Clinton baggage is going to come back to haunt her.
  7. Obama’s approval ratings do not make for long coattails.

via Hillary Clinton Isn’t Inevitable – Bloomberg View.

US and Canadian unemployment rates, 1956–2014

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Source: OECD StatExtract

Unemployed people are defined as those who report that they are without work, that they are available for work and that they have taken active steps to find work in the last four weeks.

The ILO Guidelines specify what actions count as active steps to find work; these include answering vacancy notices, visiting factories, construction sites and other places of work, and placing advertisements in the press as well as registering with labour offices.

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