Millennials’ Political Views Don’t Make Any Sense

Millennial politics is simple, really. Young people support big government, unless it costs any more money. They’re for smaller government, unless budget cuts scratch a program they’ve heard of. They’d like Washington to fix everything, just so long as it doesn’t run anything.

Young people lean way left on issues like gay marriage, pot, and immigration. On abortion and gun control, they swim closer to the rest of the electorate.

But on economics, they’re all over the map. You get the sense, reading the Reason Foundation and Pew studies, that a savvy pollster could trick a young person into supporting basically any economic policy in the world with the right combination of triggers. Conservative and liberal partisans can cherry-pick this survey to paint Millennials as whatever ideology they want.

On spending:
Conservatives can say: 65 percent of Millennials would like to cut spending.
Liberals can say: 62 percent would like to spend more on infrastructure and jobs.

On taxes:
Conservatives can say: 58 percent of Millennials want to cut taxes overall.
Liberals can say: 66 percent want to raise taxes on the wealthy.

On government’s role in our lives:
Conservatives can say: 66 percent of Millennials say that “when something is funded by the government, it is usually inefficient and wasteful.”
Liberals can say: More than two-thirds think the government should guarantee food, shelter, and a living wage.

On government size:
Conservatives can say: 57 percent want smaller government with fewer services (if you mention the magic word “taxes”).
Liberals can say: 54 percent want larger government with more services (if you don’t mention “taxes”).

via Millennials’ Political Views Don’t Make Any Sense – The Atlantic and This poll proves that millennials have totally incoherent political views – Vox.

The Quantity and Quality of Australian, New Zealand, Canadian, American and English & Welsh Lives, 1965 to 1995

Figure 1: increase in real GDP and increase in real GDP plus life expectancy GDP increase equivalent, Australia, New Zealand, Canada, USA and England & Wales, 1965 to 1995

image

Source: Becker, Gary S., Tomas J. Philipson, and Rodrigo R. Soares. The Quantity and Quality of Life and the Evolution of World Inequality, NBER Working Paper No. 9765 (June 2003).

GDP per capita is usually used to proxy for the quality of life of individuals living in different countries. Becker and his co-authors computed a "full" growth rate that incorporates the gains in health and life expectancy.

Figure 1 shows that New Zealand was way behind the other countries in improvements in the quantity and quality of life between 1965 and 1995. This brings new meaning to the two decades of lost growth between 1973 and 1995. Canada should refer to 1965 to 1995 as its golden era.

Would you rather make $50,000 in today’s New Zealand or $100,000 in the 1980s before neo-liberalism?

Ezra Klein and Matt O’Brien posed an interesting variation of Brad De Long’s Time Machine question. O’Brien asked:

Try this thought experiment. Adjusted for inflation, would you rather make $50,000 in today’s world or $100,000 in 1980’s? In other words, is an extra $50,000 enough to get you to give up the internet and TV and computer that you have now? The answer isn’t obvious.

And if $100,000 isn’t enough, what would be? $200,000? More? This might be the best way to get a sense of how much better technology has made our lives—not to mention the fact that people are living longer—the past 35 years, but the problem is it’s particular to you and your tastes. It’s not easy to generalize.

This doesn’t mean, though, that the middle class is doing well or even as well as it should be. Just that it’s doing better than the official numbers say it is.

Let them have iPhones is the new let them eat cake.

The same questions are asked in New Zealand in a different way when people go on about how much more unequal New Zealand is compared to the 1980s and how bad things have got because of that rise in inequality.

Would it better to be on the welfare benefit in the 1980s than on a benefit today in a less equal New Zealand than in the 1980s? It is certainly the case that the Gini coefficient is worse than it was in the 1980s – see figure 1.

Figure 1: Gini coefficient New Zealand 1980-2015

gini coefficient 1980-2005

Source: Bryan Perry, Household incomes in New Zealand: Trends in indicators of inequality and hardship 1982 to 2013. Ministry of Social Development (July 2014).

But household incomes on a real basis increased across the border in New Zealand – see figure 2 – including for Maori and Pasifika. As shown in figure 2 below, between 1994 and 2010, real equivalised median New Zealand household income rose by 47%; for Māori, this rise was 68%; for Pasifika, the rise in real equivalised median household income was 77%.

Figure 2: Real equivalised median household income (before housing costs) by ethnicity, 1988 to 2013 ($2013)

image

Source: Bryan Perry, Household incomes in New Zealand: Trends in indicators of inequality and hardship 1982 to 2013. Ministry of Social Development (July 2014).

The biggest worry for anyone longing to be on a welfare benefit or to be otherwise working back in the  good old days in the 1980s on the more equal incomes of back then is instant death.

Stepping into that Time Machine to go back to the more equal, more egalitarian 1980s shaves about five years off your life expectancy, if not more! Death certainly is the great leveller when it comes to Left over Left fantasies about the good old days before the economic reforms of the 1980s. Indeed, the 1980s was a period where life expectancies started to increase again after a hiatus in the 1960s and 1970s.

Time travel back to the good old days in the 1980s before neoliberalism would be particularly grim from Maori because of their much lower life expectancies of Maori back in the 1980s – see figure 3.

Figure 3: Life expectancy at birth, Maori and non-Maori by sex

image

Source: Statistics New Zealand.

The most apt summary of how bad it was in the 1980s compared to today is by veteran left-wing grumbler Max Rashbrooke. To paint pre-1984 New Zealand, pre-neoliberal New Zealand as an egalitarian paradise, he had to ignore the economic progress of two thirds of the population and the inequalities they suffered:

New Zealand up until the 1980s was fairly egalitarian, apart from Maori and women, our increasing income gap started in the late 1980s and early 1990s.

How Al Gore spins global warming

The impact of parental employment on child poverty in couple families, Anglo-Saxon countries

Figure 1: child poverty rates in couple families by employment status, Anglo-Saxon countries, 2010

image

Source: OECD Family Database; Poverty thresholds are set at 50% of the median income of the entire population.

Green parties score 2/3 on this test?

Proportion of births out of wedlock, 2011, Anglo-Saxon countries

Figure 1: Proportion of births out of wedlock, 2011, Anglo-Saxon countries

image

Source: OECD family database; no data for Ireland.

The GMO food die-hard GMO opponents love (and oppose a label for)

Who is where on the Laffer curve?

The impact of single parent employment on child poverty rates, Anglo-Saxon countries

Figure 1: Child poverty rate by employment status of single parent, Anglo-Saxon countries, 2010

image

Source: OECD Family Database; Poverty thresholds are set at 50% of the median income of the entire population.

Democrats and Republicans used to overlap ideologically

Image

Per capita receipt of asylum seekers

Hypothetical election results if Garth McVicar were leader of the Conservative Party

Colin Craig has resigned as leader of the Conservative Party. If the head of the Sensible Sentencing Trust Garth McVicar succeeded him and he was to win an electorate seat, the table below shows how the NZ Parliament would have changed at the last general election in 2014.

Party name

Party Votes won

Party seat entitlement

No. of electorate seats won

No. of list MPs

Total MPs

  

% of MPs

ACT New Zealand

0.69%

1

1

0

1

 

0.83%

Conservative

3.97%

5

1

4

5

 

4.13%

Green Party

10.70%

13

0

13

13

 

10.74%

Labour Party

25.13%

31

26

5

31

 

25.62%

Māori Party

1.42%

2

1

1

2

 

1.65%

National Party

47.07%

57

41

16

57

 

47.11%

New Zealand First Party

8.66%

11

0

11

11

 

9.09%

United Future

0.22%

0

1

0

1

*

0.83%

Totals

97.86%

120

71

50

121

  

100.00%

If Garth McVicar was to win an electorate seat, and with no other changes in the party vote in the 2014 election, the National Party would have lost three list MPs, the Labour Party one list MP, which was the list seat of its current leader, and the Greens would lose one list MP – that MP supports homoeopathic medicine as a cure for Ebola.

Little wonder that the National Party doesn’t seem to want the Conservative Party in Parliament as the majority of its seats come off their total and every bill in Parliament will depend upon the Conservative Party support unless they can get the Maori party on board. The Maori party votes against the National Party the majority of time in Parliament.

Ben Elton on the fraying of the Left

Gun-free zones an easy target for killers | John Lott

image

via Gun-free zones an easy target for killers | Fox News.

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