25 Jul 2015
by Jim Rose
in economic history, gender, labour economics, labour supply, politics - USA
Tags: ageing society, British economy, demographic crisis, economics of retirement, effective retirement ages, female labour force participation, female labour supply, France, Germany, male labour force participation, male labour supply, old age pensions, older workers, retirement ages, social insurance, Social Security, welfare state
Figure 1 shows a divergence from a common starting point in 1974 effective retirement ages. The French in particular were the first to put their feet up and start retiring by the age of 60 by the early 1990. There was also a sharp increase in the average effective retirement age for men in the UK over a short decade. After that, British retirement ages for men started to climb again in the late 1990s. Figure 1 also shows that the gentle taper in the effective retirement age for American men stopped at the 1980s and started to climb again in the 2000s. The German data is too short to be of much use because of German unification. France only recently stopped seeing its effective retirement age fall and it is slightly increased recently – see figure 1
Figure 1: average effective retirement age for men, USA, UK, France and Germany, 1970 – 2012, (five-year average)
Source: OECD Pensions at a Glance.
Figure 2 shows similar results for British and American women as for men in the same country shown in figure 1 . That is, falling effective retirement ages for both British and American women in the 1970s and 1980s followed by a slow climb again towards the end of 1990s. French effective retirement ages for women followed the same pattern as for French retirement ages for men – a long fall to below the age of 60 with a slight increase recently. The German retirement data suggest that effective retirement ages for German women is increasing.
Figure 2: average effective retirement age for women, USA, UK, France and Germany 1970 – 2012, (five-year average)
Source: OECD Pensions at a Glance.
24 Jul 2015
by Jim Rose
in economic history, labour economics, labour supply, politics - Australia, politics - New Zealand
Tags: ageing society, Australia, demographic crisis, economics of retirement, effective retirement ages, female labour force participation, female labour supply, male labour force participation, male labour supply, old age pensions, older workers, retirement ages, social insurance, Social Security, welfare state
Figures 1 and 2 shows a sharp increase in the average effective retirement age for men and women in both Australia and New Zealand between 1970 and 1990. After that, retirement ages for men in both countries stabilised for about a decade. effective retirement age than Australia.
Figure 1: average effective retirement age for men, Australia and New Zealand, 1970 – 2012, (five-year average)
Source: OECD Pensions at a Glance.
Interestingly, in the 1970s and 1980s, New Zealand had an old-age pension scheme, known as New Zealand Superannuation, whose eligibility age was lowered from 65 to 60 in one shot in 1975. This old-age pension in New Zealand had no income test or assets test, but there was for a time a small surcharge on any income of pensioners. Nonetheless, New Zealand had a higher effective retirement age than in Australia where the old-age pension eligibility age is 65 with strict income and assets tests.
Figure 2: average effective retirement age for women, Australia and New Zealand, 1970 – 2012, (five-year average)
Source: OECD Pensions at a Glance.
Figure 1 and figure 2 also shows that the sharp increase in effective retirement ages in New Zealand for both men and women after the eligibility age for New Zealand’s old-age pension was increased from 60 to 65 over 10 years.
Figures 1 and 2 also show the gradual increase in effective retirement ages for Australian men and women from the end of the 1990s.
23 Jul 2015
by Jim Rose
in economic history, gender, labour economics, labour supply
Tags: ageing society, British economy, demographic crisis, economics of retirement, effective retirement ages, female labour force participation, female labour supply, male labour force participation, male labour supply, old age pensions, older workers, retirement ages, social insurance, Social Security, welfare state
Figure 1 shows a divergence in the 1970s where there is a sharp increase in the average effective retirement age for men in the UK over a short decade. After that, British retirement ages for men started to climb again in the late 1990s. Figure 1 also shows that the gentle taper in the effective retirement age for American men stopped at the 1980s and started to climb again in the 2000s.
Figure 1: average effective retirement age for men, USA and UK, 1970 – 2012, (five-year average)
Source: OECD Pensions at a Glance.
Figure 2 shows similar results to figure 1 for British and American women. That is, falling effective retirement ages for both British and American women in the 1970s and 1980s followed by a slow climb again during the 1990s.
Figure 2: average effective retirement age for women, USA and UK, 1970 – 2012, (five-year average)
Source: OECD Pensions at a Glance.
15 Jul 2015
by Jim Rose
in business cycles, currency unions, economic growth, Euro crisis, fiscal policy, job search and matching, labour economics, macroeconomics, unemployment
Tags: ageing society, demographic crisis, economic reform, employment law, employment regulation, Greece, labour market deregulation, Margaret Thatcher, pension reform, privatisation, Roger Douglas, social insurance, sovereign bailouts, sovereign defaults, welfare state
24 Jun 2015
by Jim Rose
in comparative institutional analysis, financial economics, income redistribution, politics - New Zealand, Public Choice, public economics
Tags: ageing society, demographic crisis, New Zealand superannuation fund, old age pensions, social insurance, sovereign wealth funds, welfare state
The $30 billion New Zealand Superannuation Fund is the best performing sovereign wealth fund over the past five years, generating returns of more than 17 per cent a year.
Those returns easily beat all other sovereign wealth funds that publish their figures, according to a global study by JP Morgan. In the last three years alone, the fund returned an average of 21 per cent a year.
Good thing to do considering that the default deadweight cost of taxation is put by that Treasury to be 20%:
As a general rule, deadweight losses should be included if they are of sufficient size relative to the overall costs and benefits of the proposal that they are capable of altering the decision as to whether or not to proceed with the proposal.
Having said this, deadweight losses are notoriously difficult to quantify. Estimates vary from 14% up to 50% of the revenue collected.
Treasury suggests a rate of 20% as a default deadweight loss value in the absence of an alternative evidence based value. Thus public expenditures should be multiplied by a factor of 1.2 prior to discounting to incorporate the effects of deadweight loss.
This deadweight cost of taxation includes funds contributed to New Zealand government owned investment funds. In a speech last week, the Super Fund chairman Gavin Walker warned that the recent high returns were unlikely to continue in the long-term:
The last few years are likely to have been among the best years the fund will experience for some time,” he said. “On average and over the long-term we expect to earn the rather less exciting figure of 8 per cent [per annum] – but which will still provide a handsome return to New Zealander stakeholders.
The New Zealand Superannuation Fund must beat the market every single year to make up for the deadweight cost of its funding, the usual interest rate on borrowed funds, a premium for the investment risk added to the Crown’s portfolio and the cost to New Zealand’s growth rate of higher than otherwise taxes on income, entrepreneurship and investment.
15 Jun 2015
by Jim Rose
in health economics, labour economics, politics - Australia, politics - New Zealand, politics - USA, population economics
Tags: ageing society, healthy life expectancy, life expectancy, The Great Escape
Figure 1: life expectancy and healthy life expectancy of women, Anglo-Saxon countries, 2010
Source: OECD family database.
Figure 2: life expectancy and healthy life expectancy of men, Anglo-Saxon countries, 2010
Source: OECD family database
13 Jun 2015
by Jim Rose
in budget deficits, currency unions, economic growth, Euro crisis, fiscal policy, labour economics, labour supply, macroeconomics
Tags: ageing society, early retirement, Eurosclerosis, Greece, labour force participation, old age pensions, older workers, social insurance, taxation and the labour supply, welfare state
A country that spends nearly a fifth of its GDP on old-age pensions with surprisingly few people over the age of 55 working should not be surprised when it finds itself in financial difficulty.
09 Jun 2015
by Jim Rose
in entrepreneurship, financial economics, politics - New Zealand
Tags: active investing, ageing society, demographic crisis, efficient markets hypothesis, entrepreneurial alertness, New Zealand superannuation fund, old age pensions, passive investing, retirement savings
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