A volatile depressed neighbour? Real American and Canadian GDP growth detrended, 1955-2013 – updated

Figure 1: Real GDP per American and Canadian aged 15-64, converted to 2013 price level with updated 2005 EKS purchasing power parities, 1955-2013

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Source: Computed from OECD Stat Extract and The Conference Board, Total Database, January 2014, http://www.conference-board.org/economics

Figure 2: Real GDP per American and Canadian aged 15-64, converted to 2013 price level with updated 2005 EKS purchasing power parities, 1.9 per cent detrended, 1955-2013

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Source: Computed from OECD Stat Extract and The Conference Board, Total Database, January 2014, http://www.conference-board.org/economics

A rising line in figure 2 is above trend rate growth; a flat line is trend growth of 1.9%; and a falling line is below trend growth.

Canada has a volatile ride in the post-war period after economic success up until 1975. Despite ups and downs the Canadian economy has been in a long-term decline since 1975. Growth as  rarely being at trend and was often below, sometimes sharply below trend.

None of these depressed periods in the Canadian economy were long enough to count as a great depression. Instead there was just a long-term decline.

Canada is next door to the USA and a member of the North American Free Trade Area (NAFTA) and its antecedents so its cannot blame distance nor small size for its decline in economic performance as some do in New Zealand.

Relative to the USA, Rao et al. (2006) and Sharp (2003) attributed the gap between the USA and Canada to less capital per Canadian worker, an innovation gap as shown by lower R&D expenditure in Canada, a smaller and less dynamic high technology sector in Canada, less developed human capital at the top end of the Canadian labour market, and more limited scale and scope economies in Canada.

These factors have been put forward, at one time or another, as the proximate causes of the New Zealand productivity gap with the USA. Identifying the barriers to higher Canadian productivity may offer fresh insights into removing similar productivity barriers in New Zealand.

Figure 3 suggests that the increase in tax revenues as a percentage of GDP from 30% to 35% at the same time as the Canadian economic boom came to an end and its economic decline began is worthy of further scrutiny. The strong economic recovery from 1995 onwards also  coincided with the decline tax revenues as a percentage  of GDP.

Figure 3: tax revenue as a percentage of GDP

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Source: OECD StatExtract

US and Canadian unemployment rates, 1956–2014

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Source: OECD StatExtract

Unemployed people are defined as those who report that they are without work, that they are available for work and that they have taken active steps to find work in the last four weeks.

The ILO Guidelines specify what actions count as active steps to find work; these include answering vacancy notices, visiting factories, construction sites and other places of work, and placing advertisements in the press as well as registering with labour offices.

Recoveries from recessions across the G-7

The GOP is building a wall on the wrong border

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Average tax rates on consumption, investment, labour and capital in USA, UK and Canada, 1950-2013

Income taxes in the USA and UK didn’t change all that much after the mid-70s. Prior to that, income tax rose quite steadily in the UK in the 1950s and 1960s and not surprisingly, Britain was the sick man of Europe in the 1970s. Income taxes rose quite steadily in Canada for most of the post-war period up until 1990 and then levelled out for most of that decade before a small tapered downwards.

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Source: Cara McDaniel.

Taxes on consumption expenditure were very different stories across the Atlantic. There has been a tapering down in the  average tax rate on American consumption expenditure since 1970 after modest increases before that. Canadian taxes on consumption expenditure rose steadily until the 1970s, then drop steadily  in the 1970s  and than rose  in the 1980s and dropped again after 1992. British taxes on consumption expenditure rose sharply in the late 1960s,  dropped sharply and then rose again in the 1970s and was pretty steady after that.

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Cara McDaniel.

The sleeper tax in all three countries was payroll taxes to fund social security and the welfare state. These rose steadily in the USA, UK and Canada up until the 1990s.

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Source: Cara McDaniel.

Despite all that nonsense about neoliberalism from the  Left over Left, the average rate of tax on capital income did  not appear to change much at all over the last 50 years. There was a modest taper in US capital income taxation from the mid-30s to the mid-20s over the entire post-war period. The average Canadian tax rate on income from capital rose steadily in the 60s, fell steadily in the 70s before  rising again in the  mid-1980s and fell again after 2000. The average British tax rate on capital income rose steadily in the 60s and 70s, coinciding with the emergence of Britain as a sick man of Europe, and then stabilised in the the 1980s onwards but with a dip in the late 80s before a rise in the early 1990s.. Despite the large cuts in the statutory corporate tax rate in the UK, there was only a mild taper in the average tax rate on capital income in the UK. 

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Source: Cara McDaniel.

The average tax rate on investment expenditures is pretty stable in the USA  for the entire post-war period. The only significant increase in the average tax rate on investment expenditures in the UK  coincided with the emergence of the sick man in Europe after a drop in the early 70s. The average tax rate on investment expenditures do not change at all in the UK after the 1970s. The Canadian average tax rate on investment expenditures is higher than elsewhere. It rose steadily in the 50s and 60s, dropped in the 70s and rose again in the 80s before tapering  from 1992 onwards.

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Source: Cara McDaniel.

These higher on rising taxes and the UK and Canada did nothing for either country in catching up  with the USA. The figure 1 below shows real GDP per working age per American, Canadian and British.

Figure 1: Real GDP per Canadian, British and American aged 15-64, converted to 2013 price level, updated 2005 EKS purchasing power parities, 1950-2013

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Source: Computed from OECD StatExtract and The Conference Board, Total Database, January 2014, http://www.conference-board.org/economics

The USA is pulling away from Canada and the UK in GDP per working age person. The exception is British economy from about 1990 onwards which caught up with Canada.

Figure 2, which is detrended GDP data, illustrates the British economic boom in the 1990s. Each country’s annual economic growth rate is detrended by 1.9%, the detrending value currently used  by Ed Prescott. A flat line is growth at 1.9%, a rising line is above trend growth, a falling line  is below trend growth.

Figure 2: Real GDP per Canadian, British and American aged 15-64, converted to 2013 price level, updated 2005 EKS purchasing power parities, detrended 1.9%, 1950-2013

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Source: Computed from OECD Stat Extract and The Conference Board, Total Database, January 2014, http://www.conference-board.org/economics

Figure 2 shows that Canada has been in a long-term decline since the mid-1980s  with much of this decline coinciding with periods of rising taxes on income from labour.

The British economy boomed in the 1990s, after the tax hikes of the 1970s and early 80s were reversed. This growth dividend was squandered by the Blair government in the 2000.

Figure 2 also shows that US growth was rather stable with some ups and downs up until 2007, expect during the productivity slowdown in the 1970s. The first major departure from trend growth of 1.9% was with the onset of the great recession.

Real GDP per Canadian and American aged 15-64, 2013 price level, updated 2005 EKS PPP, detrended, 1970-2013

Figure 1: Real GDP per Canadian and American aged 15-64, converted to 2013 price level, updated 2005 EKS purchasing power parities, detrended 1.9%, 1970-2013, base 1970

image

Source: Computed from OECD Stat Extract and The Conference Board, Total Database, January 2014, http://www.conference-board.org/economics

A flat line means growth at the trend rate of 1.9%; a falling line means below trend rate of growth ; a rise in line means above trend rate of growth. Canada appears to have mostly been falling behind the USA.

Figure 2: Real GDP per Canadian and American aged 15-64, converted to 2013 price level, updated 2005 EKS purchasing power parities, 1950-2013

image

Source: Computed from OECD Stat Extract and The Conference Board, Total Database, January 2014, http://www.conference-board.org/economics.

Lawmakers Barricade Door As Shots Fired at Parliament in Ottawa

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