51% of nonretirees doubt they will receive Social Security… on.gallup.com/1NcwzEa #GallupDaily http://t.co/ZhKnHYtr1X—
(@GallupNews) August 13, 2015
Who said the taxpayer was not forward-looking as per the Ricardian equivalence theorem
23 Sep 2015 Leave a comment
in fiscal policy, politics - USA Tags: ageing society, demographic crisis, Ricardian equivalence theorem
How many more golden years can we expect
23 Sep 2015 Leave a comment
in development economics, growth disasters, growth miracles, health economics Tags: ageing society, demographic crisis, life expectancies, The Great Escape
Life expectancy is on the rise, but not all of those years will be golden econ.st/1LBVyS5 http://t.co/YHTUPETk1q—
The Economist (@ECONdailycharts) August 26, 2015
The Chinese demographic crisis is now
26 Aug 2015 Leave a comment
in development economics, economic history, growth disasters, growth miracles, labour economics, labour supply, population economics Tags: ageing society, China, demographic crisis, older workers
China's massive economic advantage over the world is about to disappear read.bi/1MkYx1p http://t.co/Fw9zmMTuVx—
BI Markets (@themoneygame) August 11, 2015
France is holding its own on the demographic crisis
26 Aug 2015 Leave a comment
in population economics Tags: ageing society, demographic crisis, economics of fertility, France, Japan, South Korea
The benefits and costs of the @NZSuperFund since its inception
17 Aug 2015 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, applied welfare economics, economic growth, economic history, entrepreneurship, financial economics, fiscal policy, industrial organisation, labour economics, labour supply, macroeconomics, politics - New Zealand, public economics Tags: ageing society, company tax rate, deadweight cost of taxes, demographic crisis, efficient markets hypothesis, laffer curve, New Zealand superannuation fund, old age pensions, retirement savings, social insurance, sovereign wealth funds, taxation and entrepreneurship, taxation and investment, taxation and labour supply
Most mutual funds still can't beat their benchmark read.bi/1GkTig1 http://t.co/r7ezoDGJbV—
BI Chart of the Day (@chartoftheday) June 03, 2015
The New Zealand Superannuation Fund, the sovereign wealth fund part funding New Zealand’s old-age pension from 2029/2030 onwards, has been a bit of a wild ride. Sometimes the earnings of the Fund were well below and sometimes earning well above the long-term bond rate.
![image_thumb[3]](https://utopiayouarestandinginit.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/image_thumb310.png "image_thumb[3]")
Source: New Zealand Superannuation Fund Annual Report 2014.
Since its inception, the Fund earned an average annual return of 9.78%, which was 5.06% above the long-term bond rate, and 1.03% above its reference portfolio.
No information was given in the annual report of the New Zealand Superannuation Fund on the marginal dead weight cost of the taxes raised to fund the New Zealand Superannuation Fund to see whether there is any net benefit to taxpayers from its establishment and continued operation.
The New Zealand Government has contributed $14.88 billion to the fund from prior its inception in 2001 to the suspension of contributions in 2009 by the incoming National Party Government.
Source: New Zealand Treasury.
Over the nine years in which contributions were made, the company tax rate of 28% could have easily been up to 10 percentage points lower.
The New Zealand Treasury estimates that a one percentage point cut in the company tax costs about $220 million in forgone revenue if there are no other changes to the tax system. These are static estimates that do not include any feedback from greater investment and higher growth.
The New Zealand Superannuation Fund must beat the market every single year to make up for the deadweight cost of its funding, a premium for the investment risk added to the Crown’s portfolio and the cost to New Zealand’s growth rate of higher than otherwise taxes on income, entrepreneurship and investment.
Source: Abolish the Corporate Income Tax – The New York Times.
Median ages
16 Aug 2015 Leave a comment
in development economics, population economics Tags: demographic crisis
Japan’s population is set to fall 32% by 2060
12 Aug 2015 Leave a comment
in labour economics, labour supply Tags: ageing society, demographic crisis, Japan
Japan's population is set to fall 32% (!) by 2060, and 40% will be over age 65 econ.st/1Nk65i4 http://t.co/pes8KW6Mnm—
Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) July 13, 2015
Population projections for the rest of this century
10 Aug 2015 Leave a comment
in development economics, economic history, population economics Tags: ageing society, demographic crisis, economics of fertility
Daily chart: India will surpass China as the world's most populous country in 2022 econ.st/1MKsSFu http://t.co/EBeGKsMCtp—
The Economist (@ECONdailycharts) August 05, 2015
Which Nation Has the Worst Dependency Ratio?
09 Aug 2015 1 Comment
in economic history, politics - USA, public economics Tags: ageing society, demographic crisis, dependency ratio, social insurance
Past, present, and future of the welfare state… http://t.co/1gcGree4o1—
Austrian EconoCenter (@AustrianCenter) June 22, 2015
For both policy reasons and narcissism, I wish the most popular item ever posted on International Liberty was Mitchell’s Golden Rule.
But that guide to sensible fiscal policy isn’t even in the top 70.
Instead, my most-read post is a set of cartoons showing how the welfare state inevitably metastasizes as more and more people are lured into the wagon of government dependency.
I suspect these cartoons are popular because they succinctly capture and express a concern that is instinctively felt by many people.
But instinct isn’t the same as evidence.
So I’ve shared various estimates of America’s growing dependency problem, though I’ve also warned that these numbers don’t necessarily tell the full story.
Given my dissatisfaction with the current estimates, I was very interested to see a new attempt to measure the degree to which nations are undermined by ever-expanding redistribution. Writing for the Mises Institute and…
View original post 590 more words
Average effective retirement ages by gender in the USA, UK, Germany and France, 1970 – 2012
25 Jul 2015 1 Comment
in economic history, gender, labour economics, labour supply, politics - USA Tags: ageing society, British economy, demographic crisis, economics of retirement, effective retirement ages, female labour force participation, female labour supply, France, Germany, male labour force participation, male labour supply, old age pensions, older workers, retirement ages, social insurance, Social Security, welfare state
Figure 1 shows a divergence from a common starting point in 1974 effective retirement ages. The French in particular were the first to put their feet up and start retiring by the age of 60 by the early 1990. There was also a sharp increase in the average effective retirement age for men in the UK over a short decade. After that, British retirement ages for men started to climb again in the late 1990s. Figure 1 also shows that the gentle taper in the effective retirement age for American men stopped at the 1980s and started to climb again in the 2000s. The German data is too short to be of much use because of German unification. France only recently stopped seeing its effective retirement age fall and it is slightly increased recently – see figure 1
Figure 1: average effective retirement age for men, USA, UK, France and Germany, 1970 – 2012, (five-year average)
Source: OECD Pensions at a Glance.
Figure 2 shows similar results for British and American women as for men in the same country shown in figure 1 . That is, falling effective retirement ages for both British and American women in the 1970s and 1980s followed by a slow climb again towards the end of 1990s. French effective retirement ages for women followed the same pattern as for French retirement ages for men – a long fall to below the age of 60 with a slight increase recently. The German retirement data suggest that effective retirement ages for German women is increasing.
Figure 2: average effective retirement age for women, USA, UK, France and Germany 1970 – 2012, (five-year average)
Source: OECD Pensions at a Glance.
Average effective retirement ages by gender, Australia and New Zealand, 1970 – 2012
24 Jul 2015 1 Comment
in economic history, labour economics, labour supply, politics - Australia, politics - New Zealand Tags: ageing society, Australia, demographic crisis, economics of retirement, effective retirement ages, female labour force participation, female labour supply, male labour force participation, male labour supply, old age pensions, older workers, retirement ages, social insurance, Social Security, welfare state
Figures 1 and 2 shows a sharp increase in the average effective retirement age for men and women in both Australia and New Zealand between 1970 and 1990. After that, retirement ages for men in both countries stabilised for about a decade. effective retirement age than Australia.
Figure 1: average effective retirement age for men, Australia and New Zealand, 1970 – 2012, (five-year average)
Source: OECD Pensions at a Glance.
Interestingly, in the 1970s and 1980s, New Zealand had an old-age pension scheme, known as New Zealand Superannuation, whose eligibility age was lowered from 65 to 60 in one shot in 1975. This old-age pension in New Zealand had no income test or assets test, but there was for a time a small surcharge on any income of pensioners. Nonetheless, New Zealand had a higher effective retirement age than in Australia where the old-age pension eligibility age is 65 with strict income and assets tests.
Figure 2: average effective retirement age for women, Australia and New Zealand, 1970 – 2012, (five-year average)
Source: OECD Pensions at a Glance.
Figure 1 and figure 2 also shows that the sharp increase in effective retirement ages in New Zealand for both men and women after the eligibility age for New Zealand’s old-age pension was increased from 60 to 65 over 10 years.
Figures 1 and 2 also show the gradual increase in effective retirement ages for Australian men and women from the end of the 1990s.
Average effective retirement ages by gender, USA and UK, 1970 – 2012
23 Jul 2015 Leave a comment
in economic history, gender, labour economics, labour supply Tags: ageing society, British economy, demographic crisis, economics of retirement, effective retirement ages, female labour force participation, female labour supply, male labour force participation, male labour supply, old age pensions, older workers, retirement ages, social insurance, Social Security, welfare state
Figure 1 shows a divergence in the 1970s where there is a sharp increase in the average effective retirement age for men in the UK over a short decade. After that, British retirement ages for men started to climb again in the late 1990s. Figure 1 also shows that the gentle taper in the effective retirement age for American men stopped at the 1980s and started to climb again in the 2000s.
Figure 1: average effective retirement age for men, USA and UK, 1970 – 2012, (five-year average)
Source: OECD Pensions at a Glance.
Figure 2 shows similar results to figure 1 for British and American women. That is, falling effective retirement ages for both British and American women in the 1970s and 1980s followed by a slow climb again during the 1990s.
Figure 2: average effective retirement age for women, USA and UK, 1970 – 2012, (five-year average)
Source: OECD Pensions at a Glance.
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