Taxpayers Alliance mistaken about tax revenues as a stable % of GDP @the_tpa

The British Taxpayers Alliance got carried away a bit when it said taxes as a share of British GDP have not varied much over the last 50 years or so. Margaret Thatcher would be turning in her grave.

A stable tax take is more the case in the USA. Federal tax receipts stay within the range of 18-20% of U.S. GDP as shown in the charts below and above.

There were large cuts in the top tax rates in the USA without any fall in tax revenues as a percentage of GDP because of base broadening.

Margaret Thatcher really did make a dent in taxes as a share of GDP in the 1980s. They fell by 5% of GDP but then went back up again in the 1990s as is shown in the Centre for Policy Studies chart below.

That 5% drop was a big variation as a share of GDP which is also shown in the Taxpayers Alliance chart if you look closely at the 1980s. That sharp drop in taxes as a share of British GDP is clearer in the Centre for Policy Studies chart because it magnifies the data.

There are also big changes in the British tax mix in the 1970s and 1980s. The large rise in tax in personal income in the 1970s as a percentage of GDP, also shown in both British charts above as well is the one below, coincided with the rise of the British disease and British economy becoming widely known as the sick man of Europe.

image

Source: OECD Stat.

The large decline in taxation in personal income under Thatchernomics was followed by an economic boom. The UK grew at above the trend annual real GDP growth to 1.9% for most of the period from the early 1980s to 2007 as shown in the detrended data in the chart below.

image

Source: Computed from OECD Stat Extract and The Conference Board. 2015. The Conference Board Total Economy Database™, May 2015,http://www.conference-board.org/data/economydatabase/.

In the above chart, a flat line is growth at the same rate as the USA for the 20th century, which was 1.9% for GDP per working age person on a purchasing power parity basis. The USA’s trend growth rate in the 20th century is taken as the trend rate of growth of the global technological frontier.

A falling line in the above chart is growth in real GDP per working age person, PPP at less than the trend rate of 1.9%  per annum while a rising line is real growth in GDP per working age person in excess of the trend rate.

The Swedish tax mix as a percentage of GDP since 1965

image

Source: OECD Stat.

British tax mix as a percentage of GDP

The large rise in tax in personal income in the 1970s coincided with the rise of the British disease and British economy becoming widely known as the sick man of Europe. The large decline in taxation in personal income under Thatchernomics was followed by an economic boom.

image

Source: OECD Stat.

Tax mix in New Zealand as percentage of GDP since 1965

That GST certainly played a major role since the 1980s. Taxes on corporate profits are on the up and up despite what you would believe from the grumblings of the Left down under.

image

Source: OECD Stat.

Tax mix in the USA as a percentage of GDP since 1965

The only major change in the US tax mix in the last 50 years has been greater reliance on social security contributions.

image

Source: OECD Stat.

The share going to income taxes bobbing up and down quite a lot in the last 30 years much of that to do with the business cycle. In the 1990s, the share of taxes from personal income increased during boom times. In the Great Recession, the tax share to income tax rose with the declining economy as did that on corporate profits.

Taxation of personal income and social security contributions as a percentage of US, British, Danish, German, French and New Zealand GDPs since 1965

image

Source: Tax – Social security contributions – OECD Data and Tax – Tax on personal income – OECD Data.

The impact of the 1986 GST on the New Zealand tax mix since 1965

The introduction of the GST in 1986 led to a major change in the New Zealand tax mix. There was no offsetting income tax cuts.

image

Source: Tax – Tax on goods and services – OECD Data and Tax – Tax on personal income – OECD Data.

General government expenditure and general government revenue as a % of Australian and New Zealand GDP since 1970

I do not trust the numbers for New Zealand prior to the early 1990s released by the OECD. New Zealand simply did not have a tax structure including a GST in the double digits back then to support estate of that size. Nonetheless, the size of government in New Zealand is systematically larger than in Australia, a richer country which can afford a large government and generous welfare state.

image

Source: General government – General government revenue – OECD Data and Data extracted on 12 Feb 2016 08:45 UTC (GMT) from OECD.Stat from OECD Economic Outlook November 2015.

General government spending and general government revenue as % of US GDP since 1970

image

Source: General government – General government spending – OECD Data and Source: General government – General government revenue – OECD Data.

Japanese, Korean and US tax revenues as a % of GDP since 1965

Japanese and Korean growth in the size of government seems to validate Directors’  Law. Government get bigger after countries become rich.

image

Data extracted on 23 Feb 2016 07:08 UTC (GMT) from OECD.Stat.

Japanese, Korean and US general government expenditure as a % of GDP since 1960

image

Data extracted on 23 Feb 2016 07:45 UTC (GMT) from OECD.Stats.

Tax revenues as % of US, British, Canadian and Australian GDPs since 1965

image

Data extracted on 23 Feb 2016 07:08 UTC (GMT) from OECD.Stat

   .

General government expenditure as % of US, British and Canadian GDP since 1960

Both the British and Canadian economies experienced major winding backs in the size of government. Only the UK, under neoliberal pawn and closet Thatcherite Tony Blair, was that undone. He is now despised by many Labour Party members including its current leader for this record.

image

Data extracted on 23 Feb 2016 07:45 UTC (GMT) from OECD.Stat.

General government expenditure as % of Portuguese, Italian, Greek and Spanish GDP since 1960

I do not think any of these countries have governments who can really handle managing half of national income on a regular basis. The Italian, and I assume Greek GDPs at least are topped up quite considerably to take account of their underground economies. The top up for Italy is 20%.

image

Data extracted on 23 Feb 2016 07:45 UTC (GMT) from OECD.Stat.

Tax revenue as % of Portuguese, Italian, Greek and Spanish GDP

image

Data extracted on 23 Feb 2016 07:08 UTC (GMT) from OECD.Stat.

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