Hourly minimum wages before and after taxes, USA, UK, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and Japan

Figure 1: Hourly minimum wage before and after taxes, 2013, US dollars at purchasing power parities, single-person household

image

Source: OECD Focus on Minimum Wages after the crisis (2015).

A lot of countries borrowed a lot of money recently

Richer is greener: environmentalists are Environmental Kuznets Curve deniers

The Kuznets environmental curve describes an empirical regularity between environmental quality and economic growth. Outdoor water, air and other pollution first worse and then improves as a country first experiences economic growth and development.

While many pollutants exhibit this pattern in the Kuznets environmental curve, peak pollution levels occur at different income levels for different pollutants, countries and time periods. John Tierney explains:

In dozens of studies, researchers identified Kuznets curves for a variety of environmental problems.

There are exceptions to the trend, especially in countries with inept governments and poor systems of property rights, but in general, richer is eventually greener.

As incomes go up, people often focus first on cleaning up their drinking water, and then later on air pollutants like sulphur dioxide.

As their wealth grows, people consume more energy, but they move to more efficient and cleaner sources — from wood to coal and oil, and then to natural gas and nuclear power, progressively emitting less carbon per unit of energy.

When I was living in Japan in the mid 1990s, they just completed a period of rapid operation of the Kuznets environmental curve. I was told by my professors at Graduate School that in the 1960s, cities and prefectures welcomed polluting industries because of the better paid jobs they offered. At that time, shipping companies used like to go to Tokyo because the pollution in Tokyo Bay was so bad that it would clean all the barnacles off their ships. That made them sail faster.

image

Japanese incomes and wages doubled over the course of the 1960s. The Japanese voter was now prepared to support stricter pollution standards and environmental controls.

In the early 1970s, the ruling LDP stole the long-standing environmental policies of their opponents in a big crack down on pollution because the country could now afforded them.

Plenty of developing countries are democracies now. Their people could demand through the ballot box higher environmental standards and clean tap water but they don’t because of its cost to economic development.

The environmental movement lives in a state of denial regarding the relationship between economic growth and environmental quality.

The Empire of Japan in 1939

Top performers in science by gender, USA, UK, Japan, Canada, Australia and New Zealand

Why are Japanese 15-year-old girls as good at science as teenagers anywhere else in the world?

Figure 1: Percentage achieving the proficiency level 5 or higher in sciences by gender, USA, UK, Japan, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, 2012

image

Source: OECD StatExtract.

Top performers in maths by gender, USA, UK, Japan, Canada, Australia and New Zealand

Figure 1: Percentage achieving the proficiency level 5 or higher in mathematics by gender, USA, UK, Japan, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, 2012

image

Source: OECD StatExtract.

Top performers in reading by gender, USA, UK, Japan, Canada, Australia and New Zealand

Figure 1: percentage achieving the proficiency level 5 or higher in reading by gender, USA, UK, Japan, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, 2012

image

Source: OECD StatExtract.

Japan’s population distribution by age – 1950, 2007, and 2050

Image

The Quantity and Quality of Japanese, Singaporean and Hong Kong Lives, 1965 to 1995

Figure 1: increase in real GDP and increase in real GDP plus life expectancy GDP increase equivalent, Japan, Singapore and Hong Kong, 1965 to 1995

image

Source: Becker, Gary S., Tomas J. Philipson, and Rodrigo R. Soares. The Quantity and Quality of Life and the Evolution of World Inequality, NBER Working Paper No. 9765 (June 2003).

GDP per capita is usually used to proxy for the quality of life of individuals living in different countries. Becker and his co-authors computed a "full" growth rate that incorporates the gains in health and life expectancy.

Figure 2 shows that Japan, Hong Kong and Singapore started from similar levels of real GDP per capita PPP in 1960.

Figure 2: GDP per capita in 2014 US$ (converted to 2014 price level with updated 2011 PPPs), Hong Kong, Japan and Singapore, 1960 – 2000

image

Source: The Conference Board. 2015. The Conference Board Total Economy Database™, May 2015, http://www.conference-board.org/data/economydatabase/

Who will be the 20 largest economies in 2030?

Working age populations of Australia, New Zealand and Japan

image

HT: OECD

The robots are coming, the robots are coming – been there, done that in Japan

When I was a kid, I used to like reading the Encyclopaedia Britannica. I read them from cover to cover.

One of the things I recalled from the Encyclopaedia Britannica was that in 1961 nearly half of the Japanese workforce worked in the agricultural sector.

image

I notice that anomaly when I was reading the Encyclopaedia Britannica entry on Japan in the 1970s. Japan had undergoing an economic transformation since my Encyclopaedia Britannica’s were written in 1961. It was very much out of date.

Australian manufacturing was being outcompeted in every direction from automobiles to clothing and footwear by the Japanese manufacturing sector back when I was a teenager.

The Japanese economic miracle absorbed the Japanese agricultural labour force without anybody having time to shout "the robots are coming, the robots are coming".

There is a lesson in there somewhere for the current breathless journalism, with far too many academic fellow travellers about "the robots are coming, the robots are coming".

When I was a student at graduate school in Japan, I visited a Japanese factory in 1996 that was completely automated bar one function. Only once did a human hand actually touch the electrical goods they were making. Naturally, at the Q&A session at the end of our visit, I asked when was his job going to be automated.

Does vertical political integration reduce corruption in government?

Anti-Dismal blogged today on how vertical integration can reduce the double mark-up problem of monopolies. The one thing worse than a monopoly is dealing with a chain of monopolies. Buyers must pay a monopoly price to each step in the chain.

If these monopolies were to merge into one single monopoly, the monopolist would charge a lower single monopoly price. The vertical integration captures the deadweight social loss of the chain of monopoly prices. Monopoly profits are higher, yet the monopoly price paid by buyers is lower.

This blog post reminded me of a particularly astute short article in the Economist 15 or so years ago analysing Benazir Bhutto’s husband as a solution to the chain of monopolies problem.

When Benazir Bhutto became Prime Minister of Pakistan for the first, she appointed her husband Minister of Investments. He became known as Mr 10%.

The welfare gain for the downtrodden Pakistani’s was that if you paid Benazir Bhutto’s husband is 10%, you got what you pay for. No further bribes of more junior and petty officials were required if you paid Benazir Bhutto’s husband his 10%. Many investments and business that otherwise would have been blocked but for countless bribes to a chain of corrupt politicians and bureaucrats at every turn went ahead.

When Benazir Bhutto became Prime Minister of Pakistan for the second time, not only was her husband again appointed Minister of Investments, he had better economic advisers. He became Mr 40%. Benazir Bhutto’s husband wanted to capture the economic gains of single-stop bribery and corruption for his family.

My experience with Japanese overseas development assistance confirms the same. They budget 10% for bribes. Their main interest is effective bribery. If they pay a bribe, the Japanese ODA agency  expects to get what they pay and not have to pay a chain of more junior officials as well for the same thing.

Recoveries from recessions across the G-7

Japanese population has peaked and is now in rapid decline to 2050

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