The Value of Steve Jobs

Peter G. Klein's avatarOrganizations and Markets

| Peter Klein |

As you have likely heard, Steve Jobs is taking an indeterminate leave of absence from Apple to deal with his continuing health problems. How will this affect Apple? How important is one person — albeit the founder and CEO — to a diversified multinational company with tens of thousands of employees? Apple’s stock slipped slightly on the news of Jobs’ leave (down 2.3 percent today, the first trading day after the announcement), but Jobs’s health problems are well known and Apple’s stock price presumably already included a discount reflecting the possibility he’d step down. To estimate the value of a particular employee to the firm in this way, we need an unanticipated departure, one that isn’t a response to poor performance and isn’t expected in advance.

Sure, enough, there’s an app for that — I mean, there’s a literature on that. An influential 1985 paper by Bruce Johnson, Robert Magee, Nandu…

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Is Uber taking British customers for a ride?

Rupert Murdoch used to think newspapers were rivers of gold

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Milton Friedman on the essence of the Age of the Worker

There is rampant height discrimination in the movie business?

Spare me the conspiracy theories. When an actor or actress walks into a scene, the first impression of the audience is not supposed to be about how tall they are or how they differ in height from those already on the stage or film set.

This casting decision can be deliberate or simply that actors who do not differ as much in height seem to work well together and have more successful careers because of better rapport.

The digital consumption boom continues in New Zealand

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via Media releases | Commerce Commission.

The scourge of lower prices illustrated

TIL America Online is still in business

The rising gales of creative destruction in brewing

Corporate welfare in New Zealand – 2015 budget update

I have updated my 2014 report on corporate welfare for the 2015 budget. My report was published today by the Taxpayers’ Union.

My key finding was that corporate welfare increased in the 7th budget of the National Party-led Government from $1.178 billion in its 2014 budget to $1.344 billion in the 2015 budget – see figure 1 and table 1.

Figure 1: Corporate welfare, Budgets 2008/09 to 2015/16

Source: New Zealand budget papers, various years.

Table 1: Corporate welfare in Budgets 2008/09 to 2015/16, $million

08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16
Arts, Culture & Heritage

3

11

19

10

29

4

4

42

Commerce and Consumer Affairs

6

6

6

6

7

7

6

7

Communications

0

25

39

150

178

205

215

190

Economic Development

372

419

446

379

332

284

280

297

Finance

16

44

3

108

15

210

0

0

Primary Industries

700

0.3

14

0.0

43

65

77

180

Science and Innovation

0

4

0

0

0

112

219

269

Tourism

76

94

119

113

98

124

124

121

Transport

578

530

376

510

680

119

255

239

Total $million

1,751

1,134

1,022

1,277

1,382

1,130

1,178

1,344

Source: New Zealand budget papers, various years.

Corporate welfare has ranged between about $1 billion and $1.4 billion per year in each of the seven budgets presented by the current National-led Government – see Table 1 and Figures 1 and 2.

Figure 2: Corporate welfare, Budgets 08/09 to 15/16 by Vote

Source: New Zealand budget papers, various years; note: Vote Commerce and Consumer Affairs omitted in all years from Figure 2.

The predominant recipient of corporate welfare in this year’s budget, and all of those since 2008 is KiwiRail. Vote Transport accounts for a third of all corporate welfare – see Figures 3 and 4. Vote Economic Development is the next largest source of corporate welfare and accounts for 28% of the total since 2008 – see Figures 3 and 4.

Figure 3: Distribution of total corporate welfare across votes, 2008/09 to 2015/16

Source: New Zealand budget papers, various years.

Figure 4: State-owned enterprise welfare, Vote Transport and Vote Finance (KiwiRail), Budgets 08/09 to 15/16

Source: New Zealand budget papers, various years.

$280 – $450 million in corporate welfare has been under the patronage of the Minister for Economic Development over the last eight budgets – see Figure 5. In this year’s budget, corporate welfare under the Minister’s hand has increased slightly from $280 million to $297 million.

Figure 5: Corporate welfare, Vote Economic Development, Budgets 2008/09 to 2015/16

Source: New Zealand budget papers, various years.

Up until the 2013/14 budget, science and innovation spending was targeted at research that would not find private sponsors because it could not capture the returns from their discoveries – see Figure 6. Figure 6 shows that there is being rapid growth within Vote Science and Innovation of various forms of start-up and commercialisation grants in recent budgets.

Figure 6: Corporate welfare, Vote Science and Innovation, Budgets 08/09 to 15/16

Source: New Zealand budget papers, various years.

Figure 7 shows that the Government is getting back into the business of subsidising agriculture. The Primary Growth Partnership (PGP) is an R&D grants programme for the primary industry sector. There are 18 PGP programmes underway with a funding commitment from government and from industry combining to $708 million by 2017.

Figure 7: Farm welfare, Vote Primary Industries, Budgets 08/09 to 15/16

Source: New Zealand budget papers, various years.

Figure 8 shows that the National Party-led government is a major investor in ultrafast broadband – going where private entrepreneurs fear to tread.

Figure 8: Corporate welfare, Vote Communications, Budgets 08/09 to 15/16

Source: New Zealand budget papers, various years.

The corporate welfare in the Budget 2015 adds about six percentage points to the company tax rate. Should these corporate indulgences should continue or should the company tax rate drop six percentage points?

If that six percentage points on top of the company tax rate was renamed a business subsidies levy, how many businesses would want to pay it rather than developing their own business under much lower company tax rate?

Rise of private R&D and the fall of public R&D

via Corporate R&D Spending Offers Glimmer of Economic Hope – Bloomberg Business.

Who among the top 1% and top 0.1% increased their share of income most between 1979 and 2005?

The members of the top 1% whose income increased the most between 1979 and 2005 were real estate professionals followed by financial professionals – see figure 1.

Figure 1: increase in share of national income (including capital gains) received by top 1% for each primary taxpayer occupation in top 1% between 1979 and 2005

image

Source: Jon Bakija, Adam Cole and Bradley T. Heim “Jobs and Income Growth of Top Earners and the Causes of Changing Income Inequality:  Evidence from U.S. Tax Return Data”.

Figure 2 shows that the fastest-growing shares among the top 1% as in figure 1 are not necessarily the largest occupational group are those income earners. Moreover, their fortunes seem largely unrelated to each other.

Figure 2: Percentage of national income (including capital gains) received by top 1%, and each primary taxpayer occupation in top 1%
image

Source: Jon Bakija, Adam Cole and Bradley T. Heim “Jobs and Income Growth of Top Earners and the Causes of Changing Income Inequality:  Evidence from U.S. Tax Return Data”.

The next members of the top 1% in terms of income growth were rather respectable group:professionals and scientists and arts, media and sports. The latter,arts, media and sports get a complete pass on their membership of the top 1% despite their great success in increasing their incomes since 1979 at the expense apparently on the bottom 99% if the Twitter Left is to be believed.

Figure 3: increase in share of national income (including capital gains) received by top 0.1% for each primary taxpayer occupation in top 0.1%between 1979 and 2005

image

Source: Jon Bakija, Adam Cole and Bradley T. Heim “Jobs and Income Growth of Top Earners and the Causes of Changing Income Inequality:  Evidence from U.S. Tax Return Data”.

Arts, media and sports superstars are one of the fastest-growing members of the top 0.1% – see figure 3. Again, the arts, media and sports superstars get a complete pass on their membership of the top 0.1% from the Twitter Left. Most of the other occupations in the top 0.1% don’t strike me as anything other than working rich – see figure 3 and figure 4.

As with the top 1%, the top 0.1% of income earners are a mixed bag of occupations – see figure 4. Their fortunes are unrelated to each other terms of the forces driving there are increased incomes.

Figure 4: Percentage of national income (including capital gains) received by top 0.1%, and each primary taxpayer occupation in top 0.1%
image

Source: Jon Bakija, Adam Cole and Bradley T. Heim “Jobs and Income Growth of Top Earners and the Causes of Changing Income Inequality:  Evidence from U.S. Tax Return Data”.

Creative destruction in digital devices

How much of the top 0.1% are now working rich in the USA, 1916–2013, and Canada, 1946–2007

Piketty and Saez (2003) concluded that a substantial fraction of the rise in top incomes was due to surging top wage incomes. They concluded that top executives (the ‘working rich’) replaced top capital owners (the ‘rentiers’) at the top of the income hierarchy.

That conclusion still holds for both the USA and Canada. The largest portion of the top 0.1% in both countries have become those earning wages. The top 0.1% are top wage earners who work for their livings founding, building or directing businesses.

Figure 1: percentage of top 0.1% with wages, salaries, pensions or entrepreneurial incomes, USA, 1916 – 2013

image

Source: Alvaredo, Facundo, Anthony B. Atkinson, Thomas Piketty and Emmanuel Saez, The World Top Incomes Database.

Figure 2: percentage of top 0.1% with incomes from interest, dividends and rents, USA, 1916 – 2013

image

Source: Alvaredo, Facundo, Anthony B. Atkinson, Thomas Piketty and Emmanuel Saez, The World Top Incomes Database.

Figure 3: percentage of top 0.1% with wage salary and pension incomes, business incomes  and professional incomes,  Canada, 1946 – 2007

image

source : Alvaredo, Facundo, Anthony B. Atkinson, Thomas Piketty and Emmanuel Saez, The World Top Incomes Database.

Figure 4: percentage of top 0.1% with dividend, interest or investment incomes,  Canada, 1946 – 2007

image

Source: Alvaredo, Facundo, Anthony B. Atkinson, Thomas Piketty and Emmanuel Saez, The World Top Incomes Database.

Creative destruction in content control

via 2015 Internet Trends — Kleiner Perkins Caufield Byers.

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