https://twitter.com/JohnDaley_/status/440951146547384320
#Agepensionmyth 2: 65 to 69 year olds can't work. Fact: disability rates only slightly higher than 60-64 year olds pic.twitter.com/0KwATRvr6V
— John Daley (@JohnDaley_) March 4, 2014
Life expectancy is increasing, but so is poor health in old age
05 Apr 2016 Leave a comment
in fiscal policy, health economics, macroeconomics Tags: ageing society, disabilities, life expectancies
Core Crown net debt in New Zealand June years, 1997–2015, % of GDP
01 Apr 2016 Leave a comment
in fiscal policy, macroeconomics, politics - New Zealand Tags: budget deficits, government debt
@garethmorgannz’s #UBI finishes the job on #GenerationRent @JordNZ
29 Mar 2016 Leave a comment
in fiscal policy, labour economics, labour supply, macroeconomics, politics - New Zealand, population economics, poverty and inequality Tags: Edward Prescott, New Zealand superannuation, old age pensions, social insurance, timing inconsistency, universal basic income, welfare state
Gareth Morgan revealed today a hitherto unnoticed design feature in his Universal Basic Income of $11,000 per annum. It will be phased in over a long time. That will mean that Generation Rent will continue to pay taxes to fund a universal old age pension for their parents and grandparents, but will not be fortunate enough to receive that themselves.
Source: Morgan Foundation (2016) Taxpayers Union Critique of the UBI just bonkers – again
They are not left of their own devices. Generation Rent is expected to save the Universal Basic Income they receive over their working lives to avoid living in poverty in their retirement. Does not strike me as a political winner.
The Morgan Foundation does not understand the implications of time inconsistency for retirement savings policy:
- Which is better? Save for your retirement through the share market or save to own your own home and then present yourself at the local social security office to collect your taxpayer funded old-age pension?
- Under this fine game of bluff, you bleed the taxpayer in your old age and pass on your debt-free home to your children.
This strategy of not saving much for retirement is rational for the less well-paid. The family home is exempt from income and asset testing for social security. If you lose you bet, sell your house and live off the capital. For ordinary workers, this is a good bet. The middle class might prefer to live in a more luxurious retirement.
For ordinary workers, whose wages are not a lot more than their old age pension from the government, a government funded pension is a good political gamble. The old-age pension for a couple in New Zealand is set at no less that 60% of average earnings.
Edward Prescott argues for compulsory retirement savings account albeit with important twists because it is otherwise irrational for many to save for their retirement against the background of a welfare state:
The reason we need to have mandatory retirement accounts is not because people are irrational, but precisely because they are perfectly rational — they know exactly what they are doing.
If, for example, somebody knows that they will be cared for in old age — even if they don’t save a nickel — then what is their incentive to save that nickel? Wouldn’t it be rational to spend that nickel instead?
…Without mandatory savings accounts we will not solve the time-inconsistency problem of people under-saving and becoming a welfare burden on their families and on the taxpayers. That’s exactly where we are now.
British tax mix as a percentage of GDP
19 Mar 2016 Leave a comment
in economic growth, economic history, entrepreneurship, fiscal policy, macroeconomics, public economics Tags: British disease, British economy, growth of government, sick man of Europe, size of government, taxation and entrepreneurship, taxation and investment, taxation and labour supply, Thatchernomics
The large rise in tax in personal income in the 1970s coincided with the rise of the British disease and British economy becoming widely known as the sick man of Europe. The large decline in taxation in personal income under Thatchernomics was followed by an economic boom.
Source: OECD Stat.
Tax mix in the USA as a percentage of GDP since 1965
18 Mar 2016 Leave a comment
in business cycles, economic history, fiscal policy, great recession, macroeconomics, politics - USA, public economics Tags: company tax, company tax rate, growth of government, GST, indirect taxation, property taxes, size of government, Social Security contributions, taxation and investment, taxation and labour supply, welfare state
The only major change in the US tax mix in the last 50 years has been greater reliance on social security contributions.
Source: OECD Stat.
The share going to income taxes bobbing up and down quite a lot in the last 30 years much of that to do with the business cycle. In the 1990s, the share of taxes from personal income increased during boom times. In the Great Recession, the tax share to income tax rose with the declining economy as did that on corporate profits.
Lunch and Conversation with Thomas J. Sargent
18 Mar 2016 Leave a comment
in economic growth, economics, Euro crisis, fiscal policy, global financial crisis (GFC), great recession, job search and matching, macroeconomics, monetary economics, Public Choice Tags: Thomas Sargent
General government expenditure and general government revenue as a % of Australian and New Zealand GDP since 1970
13 Mar 2016 Leave a comment
in budget deficits, economic history, fiscal policy, macroeconomics, politics - New Zealand, politics - USA, public economics Tags: Australia, growth of government, size of government
I do not trust the numbers for New Zealand prior to the early 1990s released by the OECD. New Zealand simply did not have a tax structure including a GST in the double digits back then to support estate of that size. Nonetheless, the size of government in New Zealand is systematically larger than in Australia, a richer country which can afford a large government and generous welfare state.
Source: General government – General government revenue – OECD Data and Data extracted on 12 Feb 2016 08:45 UTC (GMT) from OECD.Stat from OECD Economic Outlook November 2015.
General government spending and general government revenue as % of US GDP since 1970
12 Mar 2016 Leave a comment
in budget deficits, economic history, fiscal policy, politics - USA, public economics Tags: growth of government, size of government
Source: General government – General government spending – OECD Data and Source: General government – General government revenue – OECD Data.
Presidential candidate tax plans and economic growth
06 Mar 2016 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, economic growth, fiscal policy, macroeconomics, politics - USA, public economics Tags: 2016 presidential election, taxation and entrepreneurship, taxation and investment, taxation and labour supply
[/embed]https://www.facebook.com/UnbiasedAmerica/photos/pb.123061011213236.-2207520000.1457089554./449398021912865/?type=3&theater[/embed]
Effective marginal tax rates on single and dual earner families in the USA, Britain, France, Germany, Canada, Italy, Sweden, Denmark, Australia and New Zealand
05 Mar 2016 Leave a comment
in economics of love and marriage, fiscal policy, gender, labour economics, labour supply, law and economics, politics - Australia, politics - New Zealand, politics - USA, public economics Tags: Australia, British economy, Canada, Denmark, effective marginal tax rates, family tax benefits, family tax credits, France, Germany, in-work tax credits, Italy, poverty traps, rational irrationality, social insurance, Sweden, taxation and labour supply
Some countries including New Zealand and Australia do not give ordinary families much of an incentive to earn more. Effective marginal tax rates on low income families is one of the few times that the Left discovers supply-side economics.
Source: Taxing Wages 2015 – OECD 2015.
Income tax plus employee Social Security contributions less tax benefits by family structure in the US, Britain, Canada, Germany, Italy, Denmark, France, Sweden, Australia and New Zealand
05 Mar 2016 Leave a comment
in fiscal policy, politics - Australia, politics - New Zealand, politics - USA, public economics Tags: Australia, British economy, Canada, Denmark, family taxation, France, Germany, Italy, social insurance, Sweden, taxation and labour supply
Those sensitive and caring northern European welfare states do tax families rather heavily even after accounting for family cash benefits.
Source: Taxing Wages 2015 – OECD 2015.
Income tax plus employee contributions less cash benefits as % of earnings by family type in USA, Britain, Canada, Sweden, France, Italy, Denmark, Germany, Australia and New Zealand
04 Mar 2016 Leave a comment
in fiscal policy, politics - Australia, politics - New Zealand, politics - USA, public economics Tags: Australia, British economy, Canada, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, social insurance, Social Security, Sweden, taxation and labour supply
Those much admired northern European welfare states tax families and individuals much more than do the Anglo-Saxon welfare states.
Source: Taxing Wages 2015 – OECD 2015.
Income tax and social security contributions as a percentage of gross wage earnings in the USA, Britain, Canada, Germany, Denmark, Italy, France, Sweden, Australia and New Zealand
04 Mar 2016 Leave a comment
in fiscal policy, politics - Australia, politics - New Zealand, politics - USA, public economics Tags: Australia, British economy, Canada, Denmark, Germany, Italy, social insurance, Social Security, Sweden, taxation and labour supply
Source: Taxing Wages 2015 – OECD 2015.
Income tax plus employee and employer social security contributions as % of labour costs in US, Britain, Germany, Italy, Canada, Australia, Sweden and Denmark
03 Mar 2016 Leave a comment
in fiscal policy, public economics Tags: Australia, British economy, Canada, Denmark, Germany, Italy, social insurance, Social Security, Sweden, taxation and labour supply
General government expenditure as % of US, British and Canadian GDP since 1960
28 Feb 2016 Leave a comment
in economic history, fiscal policy, macroeconomics, politics - USA, public economics Tags: British economy, Canada, growth of government, Margaret Thatcher, size of government, Thatchernomics, Tony Blair
Both the British and Canadian economies experienced major winding backs in the size of government. Only the UK, under neoliberal pawn and closet Thatcherite Tony Blair, was that undone. He is now despised by many Labour Party members including its current leader for this record.
Data extracted on 23 Feb 2016 07:45 UTC (GMT) from OECD.Stat.
Utopia, you are standing in it! 
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