How Scandinavian Countries Pay for Their Government Spending

Equilibrium unemployment rates in Denmark, Sweden, Norway and Finland, 1969 – 2017

Equilibrium unemployment rates are creeping up on all Scandinavian countries bar Norway.

Data extracted on 10 Nov 2015 07:07 UTC (GMT) from OECD.Stat.

Why are Scandinavians so thin? Still few overweight Japanese

Swedish and Danish top incomes & union decline @FlipChartRick @EconomicPolicy @PoliticalSift

The Danish top 1% and top 10% is even lazier than their transnational co-conspirators. No success at all at either grinding the Danish unions down or extracting more labour surplus from the long-suffering Danish proletariat.

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Source: OECD StatExtract and Top Incomes Database.

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Source: OECD StatExtract and Top Incomes Database.

The Swedish top 10% and top 1%  have done a bit better since the economic liberalisation in that country from the early 1990s. But none of that additional labour surplus has anything to do with grinding the unions down because Swedish union membership has not declined.

image

Source: OECD StatExtract and Top Incomes Database.

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Source: OECD StatExtract and Top Incomes Database.

The Big Mac index illustrated

https://twitter.com/Brilliant_Ads/status/660046314042970113

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No Matter How You Slice the Data, Senator Sanders and other Leftists Are Wrong to Think Nations like Sweden and Denmark Are More Prosperous than America

Dan Mitchell's avatarInternational Liberty

I periodically make comparisons of the United States and Europe that are not very flattering for our cousins across the Atlantic.

Though this isn’t because of any animus toward Europe. Indeed, I always enjoy my visits. And some of America’s best (albeit eroding) features, such as rule of law and dignity of the individual, are a cultural inheritance from that continent.

Nor am I trying to overstate America’s competitiveness, which actually has eroded considerably during this century.

Instead, I’m simply trying to make the narrow point that too much government is already causing serious problems in Europe, and I’m worried those problems are spreading to the United States.

Yet some of our statist friends, most notably Senator Bernie Sanders, think America should deliberately choose to be more like Europe.

They have this halcyon vision that the average European is more prosperous and they exclaim that this is proof that…

View original post 1,133 more words

@MaxCRoser the impact of the top 1% on Swedish economic growth

A fall in the share of the top 1% of total Swedish total incomes was in tune with the emergence of a new word in the English language which was Swedosclerosis. That was the long stagnation in the Swedish economy in the 1970s and the 1980s with Swedish economic growth well below that in the trend rate of growth in the USA. Only after an increase in the top 1% share in Sweden did economic growth start recovering to trend.

Source: Computed from OECD StatExtract and The Conference Board. 2015. The Conference Board Total Economy Database™, May 2015, http://www.conference-board.org/data/economydatabase/

In the chart above, a flat-line in real GDP per working age Swede is growth at the trend rate of the US economy for the 20th century which was 1.9% per year. A falling line is Swedish growth below trend, a rising line is growth above that trend rate of 1.9% in Sweden. A trend rate of 1.9% is the trend rate of growth currently used by Edward Prescott for the USA in the 20th century.

No country for gender equality – the Swedish gender pay gap at 10th, 50th and 90th percentile since 1980

Whatever else a generous welfare state, high taxes and lavish maternity leave may do, they haven’t made more than a scratch on the Swedish gender pay gap for 35 years at least.

Source: OECD Employment Database.

Real GDP per working age British, Dane and Swede 1950 – 2012, PPP

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Source: Computed from OECD StatExtract and The Conference Board. 2015. The Conference Board Total Economy Database™, May 2015, http://www.conference-board.org/data/economydatabase/

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Source: Computed from OECD StatExtract and The Conference Board. 2015. The Conference Board Total Economy Database™, May 2015, http://www.conference-board.org/data/economydatabase/

The data is detrended at 1.9% per  year – the trend rate of growth for the USA in the 20th century. A rising line means growth greater than 1.9% for that year,  a falling line means growth of less than 1.9% for the year. A flat line is growth of 1.9% for that year.

Britain, Sweden and Denmark all grew quickly up until the 1970s in a period known as post-war catch up.In the 1970s and early 1980s, there was the British disease. The 1970s to the early 1990s was Swedosclerosis. There was a boom in the British economy subsequent to the economics of Mrs Thatcher.

Generation Rent comes to Scandinavia in lockstep – real housing prices in #Finland, #Sweden & #Norway since 1975

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Source: International House Price Database – Dallas Fed

Note: The house price index series is an index constructed with nominal house price data. The real house price index is an index calculated by deflating the nominal house price series with a country’s personal consumption expenditure deflator.

% of unemployment lasting longer than 12 months in Scandinavia since 1976

As I recall, most unemployed have been unemployed longer than 12 months in Sweden have to go on a labour market program. When they returned to unemployment after the program, the clock starts again. They are deemed to be freshly unemployed rather than adding to the previous spell with an interlude on a make work program. This makes Swedish long-term unemployment data rather unintelligible.

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Source: OECD StatExtract.

Finland was recovering from its worst depression since the 1930s and the early 1990s when its data on long-term unemployment started to be continuous. This makes Finnish unemployment data rather difficult to interpret. Norway’s data for the long-term unemployed goes up and down a bit too much to be trustworthy without a background policy narrative.

Union density rates in Scandinavia since 1960

Union membership has been very high all the time in Norway, Sweden, Denmark and Finland.

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Source: OECD Stat Extract.

How @equitablegrowth showed inequality helps growth when arguing inequality harms growth

The Washington Centre for Equitable Growth recently tweeted that inequality harms growth in the USA as compared to Sweden, France, Germany and the UK. It was relying on some dodgy OECD research.

The Washington Centre for Equitable Growth did not check their inequality ratios they tweeted against trends in economic growth and economic policy since 1970, which I have reproduced in figure 1. Germany is not included in figure 1 because German data on growth is thrown askew by German unification.

Figure 1: Real GDP per British, French and Swede aged 15-64,  2014 US$ (converted to 2014 price level with updated 2011 PPPs), 1.9 per cent detrended, 1970-2013

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Source: Computed from OECD Stat Extract and The Conference Board. 2015. The Conference Board Total Economy Database™, May 2015, http://www.conference-board.org/data/economydatabase/

Figure 1 shows that France has been in a long-term decline since the late 1970s despite the blessings of a more equal society than the USA as championed by the Washington Centre for Equitable Growth. In figure 1, a flat line is growth in real GDP per working age person, PPP, at the same rate as the USA for the 20th century, which was 1.9% per year. A falling line in figure 1 indicates growth of less than 1.9% while a rising line indicates growth in real GDP per working age person, PPP, in excess of 1.9%. In figure 1, France hardly ever grew at the trend rate of growth for the USA of 1.9% per year and was frequently well below that rate.

Sweden tells a slightly different story in figure 1 because of regime change in the early 1990s when Sweden adopted more liberal economic policies where taxes and government spending were reduced:

The rapid growth of the state in the late 1960s and 1970s led to a large decline in Sweden’s relative economic performance. In 1975, Sweden was the 4th richest industrialised country in terms of GDP per head. By 1993, it had fallen to 14th.

That regime change reversed a long economic decline since 1970 under the egalitarian policies of the Swedish Social Democratic Party. Under the Swedish Social Democratic Party, Sweden was almost always growing at less than the trend rate of growth of the USA, which was 1.9%. That position reversed only when there was a turn away from big government and high taxes.

Figure 1 tells a similar story for the British economy: a long economic decline in the 1970s when Britain was the sick man of Europe. Under Thatchernomics, Europe had a long economic boom for 20 years or more – see figure 1.

In the 1970s, under the high taxes of the Heath, Callaghan and Wilson administrations, as figure 1 shows, Britain was the sick man of Europe. With the election of the Thatcher Government, Britain soon grew at better than the US trend growth rate for nearly 20 years through few exceptions.

Swedosclerosis and Eurosclerosis compared

The impact of welfare states on life expectancy

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