@BillClinton was not triangulating on welfare reform
11 Apr 2016 Leave a comment
by Jim Rose in gender, labour economics, labour supply, politics - USA, poverty and inequality, welfare reform Tags: 1996 US welfare reforms, 2016 presidential election, Bill Clinton, child poverty, family poverty, single mothers, single parents, social insurance, welfare state
@garethmorgannz the @TaxpayersUnion #UBI report isn’t bonkers @JordNZ
31 Mar 2016 Leave a comment
by Jim Rose in labour economics, politics - New Zealand, poverty and inequality, welfare reform Tags: child support, deadbeat dads, do gooders, expressive voting, New Zealand Labour Party, New Zealand superannuation, old-age pension, rational irrationality, single mothers, social insurance, universal basic income, welfare state
A clever man can climb out of the hole a wise man would not have fallen into. In responding to my Taxpayers’ Union paper on a Universal Basic Income, Gareth Morgan just kept digging.
His first response was to say a Universal Basic Income would not be implemented immediately. This avoids retirees taking home $50 per week less than currently under NZ Superannuation.
Gareth Morgan’s solution is to say that only those currently under 50 will have to rely on a Universal Basic Income.
Only people who are today under the age of 50 could be expected to retire under the UBI policy, the policy would not apply to existing superannuitants.
Generation Rent have to pay higher taxes to keep current retirees in the superannuation style they have become accustomed. Those aged over 50 are also grandfathered in to the existing level of income support from New Zealand Superannuation.
Home ownership rates among Millenials are on average 16 percentage points lower than those recorded by Generation X https://t.co/QNcCXvFbif—
ResolutionFoundation (@resfoundation) February 13, 2016
Generation Rent will have to save their Universal Basic Income so they do not live in poverty when they retire in as little as 15 years from the date of introduction. As Gareth Morgan explains when referring to 40-year-olds:
For the 25 years prior to retirement they will receive the UBI on top of their wages. If they save a good portion of it they will have nest egg at retirement which they can use in retirement to supplement the UBI (which is more modest than today’s NZ Super).
At least the Labour Party admitted that a Universal Basic Income of $11,000 per adult was inadequate and will have to be supplemented so that no one is left worse off:
After all, $11,000 is a lower income than what is currently paid out as part of New Zealand Super. If the figure is too low, then the benefits of security and freedom promised by a UBI may not be realised.
On the other hand, if the figure is pushed higher, taxes will have to rise, possibly to an unrealistically high figure. (Morgan’s $11,000 UBI is funded through a flat tax of 30%.) There is, therefore, a real feasibility-sufficiency trade-off.
It may be that a UBI has to be supplemented by other transfers to ensure that the most vulnerable groups have enough income.
As for single parents relying on a welfare benefit, they are $150 a week short under a Universal Basic Income. Where is Sue Bradford when you need her to go on about beneficiary bashing.
Gareth Morgan’s proposed solution to this $150 per week cut in the incomes of the needy is to suggest that the non-custodial parent of the child should give up part or all of their Universal Basic Income to support their child:
Each child has two parents, the UBI is paid to both whether they live together or not.
It is totally feasible that the UBI of both parents could be required to be directed to support the children in the event of separation. In the Kahuna the amount paid per family would be $22,000 after tax – more than is paid to a sole parent family now.
This hard line on child support will make being a non-custodial parent of a child a rather risky venture under a Universal Basic Income. A Universal Basic Income is supposed to make you feel very secure against misfortune as Gareth Morgan explained back in 2011:
…let’s agree on what is a minimum income every adult should have in order to live a dignified life and then see what flows from that. We begin by specifying the income level below which we are not prepared to see anyone having to live.
If you are the non-custodial parent and down on your luck – unemployed, sick or an invalid – you cannot rely on your Universal Basic Income as a backstop because part or all of that is already transferred to support your child.
Men's rights activists are going to love me for these surprising stats… or ARE they?http://t.co/mjQEJfg1va pic.twitter.com/0ZJ2sfeQP1
— Mona Chalabi (@MonaChalabi) February 26, 2015
Paternity suits will take on a new meaning because you can lose your Universal Basic Income. The Universal Basic Income with Gareth Morgan’s ad hoc amendments this week has strings attached on whether you or someone else receives your Universal Basic Income. That make or break decision will be up to the Family Court and the Child Support Agency at IRD.
What if this is a legitimate paternity suit being served at a Trump rally? pic.twitter.com/SUwJJziWj6
— Matt Novak (@paleofuture) March 1, 2016
I am not sure how a Universal Basic Income deals with deadbeat dads at home and living abroad. Central to its funding is abolition of the welfare state bureaucracy to save $2 billion.
Those down on their luck will not have a welfare state bureaucracy to turn to if their child support does not come through or have nothing to live on after their child support is paid.
Now let Gareth Morgan explain why he wanted to get rid of that welfare state bureaucracy and replace it with a Universal Basic Income:
We must finally admit that with all the paternalistic will in the world there is no chance that public servants can adequately identify and monitor eligibility for a needs-based benefit regime.
We should save ourselves the torture of continuously getting it wrong and designing an endless stream of discriminatory “fixes” to cover our mistakes in finding targeted perfection.
The reality is that people’s circumstances are dynamic and that they will change their behaviour to suit the design of the benefit regime making the chicken and egg nature of determining “needs” an exercise in futility.
The important thing is to be fair and to have a consensus on the level of income that we all have an unconditional entitlement to in order to live a dignified life.
Gareth Morgan seems to throw Generation Rent and non-custodial parents under the bus to deliver on his dream. They both have to give up much of their Universal Basic Income either to their children or their KiwiSaver to fill the growing number of gaps in his Big Kahuna. Their unconditional entitlement to be able to live a dignified life through a Universal Basic Income of $11,000 per adult has a lot of strings attached to it and cracks to fall through with no safety net.
Wear a condom, do not divorce and do not be under 50 are the secrets to enjoying a Universal Basic Income. If not, you are on your own. Your Universal Basic income is already spoken for.
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@garethmorgannz’s #UBI finishes the job on #GenerationRent @JordNZ
29 Mar 2016 Leave a comment
by Jim Rose in fiscal policy, labour economics, labour supply, macroeconomics, politics - New Zealand, population economics, poverty and inequality Tags: Edward Prescott, New Zealand superannuation, old age pensions, social insurance, timing inconsistency, universal basic income, welfare state
Gareth Morgan revealed today a hitherto unnoticed design feature in his Universal Basic Income of $11,000 per annum. It will be phased in over a long time. That will mean that Generation Rent will continue to pay taxes to fund a universal old age pension for their parents and grandparents, but will not be fortunate enough to receive that themselves.
Source: Morgan Foundation (2016) Taxpayers Union Critique of the UBI just bonkers – again
They are not left of their own devices. Generation Rent is expected to save the Universal Basic Income they receive over their working lives to avoid living in poverty in their retirement. Does not strike me as a political winner.
The Morgan Foundation does not understand the implications of time inconsistency for retirement savings policy:
- Which is better? Save for your retirement through the share market or save to own your own home and then present yourself at the local social security office to collect your taxpayer funded old-age pension?
- Under this fine game of bluff, you bleed the taxpayer in your old age and pass on your debt-free home to your children.
This strategy of not saving much for retirement is rational for the less well-paid. The family home is exempt from income and asset testing for social security. If you lose you bet, sell your house and live off the capital. For ordinary workers, this is a good bet. The middle class might prefer to live in a more luxurious retirement.
For ordinary workers, whose wages are not a lot more than their old age pension from the government, a government funded pension is a good political gamble. The old-age pension for a couple in New Zealand is set at no less that 60% of average earnings.
Edward Prescott argues for compulsory retirement savings account albeit with important twists because it is otherwise irrational for many to save for their retirement against the background of a welfare state:
The reason we need to have mandatory retirement accounts is not because people are irrational, but precisely because they are perfectly rational — they know exactly what they are doing.
If, for example, somebody knows that they will be cared for in old age — even if they don’t save a nickel — then what is their incentive to save that nickel? Wouldn’t it be rational to spend that nickel instead?
…Without mandatory savings accounts we will not solve the time-inconsistency problem of people under-saving and becoming a welfare burden on their families and on the taxpayers. That’s exactly where we are now.
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Before tax child poverty in USA and Scandinavia
25 Mar 2016 Leave a comment
by Jim Rose in economics of love and marriage, labour economics, politics - USA, poverty and inequality, welfare reform Tags: child poverty, family poverty, Finland, Norway, single mothers, single parents, social insurance, Sweden, welfare state
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The 1st @PaulKrugman on @GrantRobertson1’s #futureofwork?
21 Mar 2016 Leave a comment
by Jim Rose in economics of regulation, labour economics, minimum wage, politics - USA, poverty and inequality, unemployment Tags: employment law, employment protection laws, France, labour market regulation, New Zealand Labour Party, rent control, social insurance, The fatal conceit, unintended consequences
Source: Paul Krugman (1997) Unmitigated Gauls.
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Taxation of personal income and social security contributions as a percentage of US, British, Danish, German, French and New Zealand GDPs since 1965
18 Mar 2016 Leave a comment
by Jim Rose in economic history, public economics Tags: growth of government, size of government, social insurance, Social Security, Social Security contributions, taxation and labour supply, welfare state
Source: Tax – Social security contributions – OECD Data and Tax – Tax on personal income – OECD Data.
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% female employees aged 25 to 54 working 40 or more hours per week across the OECD
12 Mar 2016 Leave a comment
by Jim Rose in gender, labour economics, labour supply Tags: 40 hour week, female labour force participation, hours worked, maternal labour force participation, part-time work, social insurance, taxation and labour supply
Hours worked per working age American and French and per American and French workers since 1950
12 Mar 2016 Leave a comment
by Jim Rose in economic history, labour economics, labour supply Tags: France, hours worked, social insurance, taxation and labour supply
American workers are working fewer hours per year but more labour has been supplied by the working age population especially in the 1980s and 1990s. In France, there has been a steady decline of hours worked per worker and, up until 1985, hours worked per working age French.
Data extracted on 10 Mar 2016 22:34 UTC (GMT) from OECD.Stat, Data extracted on 10 Mar 2016 22:02 UTC (GMT) from OECD.Stat, and The Conference Board. 2015. The Conference Board Total Economy Database™, May 2015, http://www.conference-board.org/data/economydatabase/
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This @amprog conservative antipoverty dictionary does not add up
08 Mar 2016 Leave a comment
by Jim Rose in applied welfare economics, economic history, economics of bureaucracy, labour economics, politics - USA, poverty and inequality, Public Choice, welfare reform Tags: 1996 US welfare reforms, pessimism bias, social insurance, welfare state
From @EugeneSteuerle: Combined tax rates and creating a 21st century social welfare budget tpc.io/1GCdrYF http://t.co/aNRPqz5gAc—
Tax Policy Center (@TaxPolicyCenter) June 28, 2015

@DemosAction why did black family incomes increase so much after the 1996 welfare reforms?http://t.co/hy8zy7rnWe
— Jim Rose (@JimRosenz) October 15, 2015
The only alternative offered by the Centre for American Progress is send them on a course. This response, which is the standard policy response to any labour market crisis, will not solve poverty, mush less inequality.
Will more education decrease inequality? A simulation provided an answer. nyti.ms/1xw5m9W http://t.co/paQp19BEWc—
The Upshot (@UpshotNYT) March 31, 2015
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Effective marginal tax rates on single and dual earner families in the USA, Britain, France, Germany, Canada, Italy, Sweden, Denmark, Australia and New Zealand
05 Mar 2016 Leave a comment
by Jim Rose in economics of love and marriage, fiscal policy, gender, labour economics, labour supply, law and economics, politics - Australia, politics - New Zealand, politics - USA, public economics Tags: Australia, British economy, Canada, Denmark, effective marginal tax rates, family tax benefits, family tax credits, France, Germany, in-work tax credits, Italy, poverty traps, rational irrationality, social insurance, Sweden, taxation and labour supply
Some countries including New Zealand and Australia do not give ordinary families much of an incentive to earn more. Effective marginal tax rates on low income families is one of the few times that the Left discovers supply-side economics.
Source: Taxing Wages 2015 – OECD 2015.
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Income tax plus employee Social Security contributions less tax benefits by family structure in the US, Britain, Canada, Germany, Italy, Denmark, France, Sweden, Australia and New Zealand
05 Mar 2016 Leave a comment
by Jim Rose in fiscal policy, politics - Australia, politics - New Zealand, politics - USA, public economics Tags: Australia, British economy, Canada, Denmark, family taxation, France, Germany, Italy, social insurance, Sweden, taxation and labour supply
Those sensitive and caring northern European welfare states do tax families rather heavily even after accounting for family cash benefits.
Source: Taxing Wages 2015 – OECD 2015.
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Income tax plus employee contributions less cash benefits as % of earnings by family type in USA, Britain, Canada, Sweden, France, Italy, Denmark, Germany, Australia and New Zealand
04 Mar 2016 Leave a comment
by Jim Rose in fiscal policy, politics - Australia, politics - New Zealand, politics - USA, public economics Tags: Australia, British economy, Canada, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, social insurance, Social Security, Sweden, taxation and labour supply
Those much admired northern European welfare states tax families and individuals much more than do the Anglo-Saxon welfare states.
Source: Taxing Wages 2015 – OECD 2015.
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Income tax and social security contributions as a percentage of gross wage earnings in the USA, Britain, Canada, Germany, Denmark, Italy, France, Sweden, Australia and New Zealand
04 Mar 2016 Leave a comment
by Jim Rose in fiscal policy, politics - Australia, politics - New Zealand, politics - USA, public economics Tags: Australia, British economy, Canada, Denmark, Germany, Italy, social insurance, Social Security, Sweden, taxation and labour supply
Source: Taxing Wages 2015 – OECD 2015.
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Income tax plus employee and employer social security contributions as % of labour costs in US, Britain, Germany, Italy, Canada, Australia, Sweden and Denmark
03 Mar 2016 Leave a comment
by Jim Rose in fiscal policy, public economics Tags: Australia, British economy, Canada, Denmark, Germany, Italy, social insurance, Social Security, Sweden, taxation and labour supply
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