Does a higher minimum wage really reduce employment? econ.st/1gp4Jbs http://t.co/WGMZGLKHmI—
The Economist (@EconBizFin) July 30, 2015
Minimum wage scenarios across the OECD
04 Aug 2015 Leave a comment
in labour economics, minimum wage, politics - USA, unemployment Tags: aggressive voting, antimarket bias, living wage, offsetting behaviour, rational ignorance, rational irrationality, The fatal conceit, The pretence to knowledge, unintended consequences
Unemployment rates across the OECD member countries
30 Jul 2015 Leave a comment
in business cycles, currency unions, economic growth, Euro crisis, job search and matching, labour economics, labour supply, macroeconomics, unemployment Tags: employment law, employment regulation, EU, Euro sclerosis, Euroland, Eurosclerosis, Japan, labour market regulation
@Income_Equality there’s an Internet you know – was there next to no unemployment prior to the mid-1980s in New Zealand?
24 Jul 2015 Leave a comment
in business cycles, econometerics, economic growth, economic history, job search and matching, labour economics, labour supply, macroeconomics, politics - New Zealand, Public Choice, unemployment, unions, welfare reform Tags: antimarket bias, Don Brash, economic reform, expressive voting, Homer Simpson, Leftover Left, lost decades, makework bias, neoliberalism, rational ignorance, rational irrationality, Sir Roger Douglas, Twitter left
Today, Closing The Gap – The Income Inequality Project boldly claimed today that there was next to no unemployment in New Zealand prior to the onset of the curse of neoliberalism.
There is an Internet on computers now where it is easy to find data showing that the unemployment rate was rising rapidly in New Zealand in the 1970s and in double digits by the end of the 1980s – see figure 1.
Figure 1: harmonised unemployment rates, Australia and New Zealand, 1956-2014
Source: OECD StatExtract.
Figure 1 shows unemployment was rising rapidly in the 1970s and wasn’t much different by the end of the 1970s to the unemployment rates recorded after about 2000 in New Zealand.
One of the reasons that Sir Roger Douglas wrote There’s Got To Be A Better Way was the rapidly rising unemployment in New Zealand and the stagnant economic growth in the late 1970s and early 1980s.
New Zealand was one of the most regulated economies, so much so that Prime Minister David Lange said:
We ended up being run very similarly to a Polish shipyard.
As for those jobs on the railways, the then Reserve Bank Governor Don Brash said in 1996:
Railways cut its freight rates by 50 percent in real terms between 1983 and 1990, reduced its staff by 60 percent, and made an operating profit in 1989/90, the first for six years.
More on unemployment: In 1955 the New Zealand’s prime minister knew all unemployed personally.
– Atkinson’s new book http://t.co/x37Vxya97C—
Max Roser (@MaxCRoser) July 24, 2015
Unemployment rates by education in the USA
21 Jul 2015 Leave a comment
in business cycles, economics of education, global financial crisis (GFC), great recession, human capital, job search and matching, labour economics, labour supply, macroeconomics, unemployment Tags: education premium, labour market demographics
June jobless rate for people 25+ with
B.A. or more 2.5%
High school diploma 5.4%
No H.S. 8.2%
on.wsj.com/1LG1B6z http://t.co/luUUuw9h1V—
Sudeep Reddy (@Reddy) July 02, 2015
French, German, Italian, Irish and Spanish equilibrium unemployment rates, 1968 – 2016
19 Jul 2015 Leave a comment
in business cycles, economic growth, economic history, fiscal policy, job search and matching, labour economics, macroeconomics, unemployment Tags: Celtic Tiger, equilibrium unemployment rate, Eurosclerosis, Germany, Ireland, Italy, natural unemployment rate, Rance, Spain
Figure 1 shows large contrasts in time path of equilibrium unemployment rates. For example, French and Italian equilibrium unemployment rates haven’t changed much since about 1986.
Figure 1: equilibrium unemployment rates, France, Germany, Italy, Ireland and Spain, 1968 – 2016
Source: OECD Economic Outlook June 2015 via OECD StatExtract..
Figure 1 also shows some fortuitous ups and downs in the German equilibrium unemployment rate. This estimate was available only from after German unification.
The equilibrium German unemployment rate rose from 6% to above 8% on the eve of the global financial crisis. Fortunately for Germany, major labour market reforms brought the equilibrium unemployment rate down as Germany moved into the global financial crisis.
The Spanish equilibrium unemployment rate had been terrible since about 1980, started to fall in the 1990s, then skyrocketed even before the onset of the global financial crisis – see figure 1.
There have been ups and downs in the Irish equilibrium unemployment rate – see figure 1. It was as high as 14% at the end of the Irish great depression of the 1970s and 1980s. The equilibrium Irish unemployment rate was 8% at the heyday of the Celtic tiger then slowly rose in the lead up to the global financial crisis.
Equilibrium unemployment rates in Canada, USA and UK, 1962 – 2016
18 Jul 2015 Leave a comment
in business cycles, job search and matching, labour economics, labour supply, macroeconomics, unemployment Tags: British economy, Canada, equilibrium unemployment rate, natural unemployment rate
Figure 1 suggests a lot more structural change in the Canadian and British labour market in the 1970s and 1980s.
Figure 1: equilibrium unemployment rates, Canada, USA and UK, 1962 – 2016
Source: OECD Economic Outlook June 2015 via OECD StatExtract.
Nothing much at all seems to have happened to the equilibrium unemployment rate in the USA since the OECD first started calculating it. I doubt that so that will be subject of a future blog. Namely, the large changes in natural unemployment rates in the post-war period, largely to demographic changes such as the baby boom.
What group has by far the lowest jobless rate?
17 Jul 2015 Leave a comment
in economics of education, human capital, job search and matching, labour economics, labour supply, occupational choice, unemployment Tags: College premium, compensating differentials, graduate premium, labour demographics
What group has by far the lowest jobless rate? College grads on.wsj.com/1Mtk8l9 http://t.co/27ft9qYjvz—
WSJ Central Banks (@WSJCentralBanks) June 05, 2015
If government “programmes have been doing very little to help children out of poverty”, what halved child poverty in the last 20 years? Economic growth?
16 Jul 2015 Leave a comment
in economic growth, labour economics, labour supply, minimum wage, politics - New Zealand, poverty and inequality, unemployment, welfare reform Tags: child poverty, family poverty, family tax credits, in-work tax credits, social insurance, welfare reform, welfare state
RNZ: Govt advised in 2013 "social mobility" approach won't materially address child poverty. rnz.to/1RwVWoj http://t.co/nfd2gY0qcH—
Alastair Thompson (@althecat) July 14, 2015
Figure 1: child poverty (%) in New Zealand (before and after housing costs), 1982 – 2013
Source: Bryan Perry, Household incomes in New Zealand: Trends in indicators of inequality and hardship 1982 to 2013. Ministry of Social Development (July 2014), Tables F.6 and F.7.
Unemployment rates of immigrants and natives in OECD member countries
16 Jul 2015 Leave a comment
in job search and matching, labour economics, labour supply, unemployment Tags: economics of immigration, unemployment rates
There were large cross-country differences in long-term unemployment duration both before and after the GFC
15 Jul 2015 Leave a comment
in Euro crisis, global financial crisis (GFC), great recession, job search and matching, labour economics, labour supply, macroeconomics, unemployment, welfare reform Tags: equilibrium unemployment rate, Eurosclerosis, natural unemployment rate, unemployment duration
77% more long-term unemployed people than before the crisis – We need them back in work! bit.ly/1JTTzYm #Jobs http://t.co/EFRGclFVms—
OECD Social (@OECD_Social) July 10, 2015
Hysteresis in practice, Delong-Summers Variety @delong @LHSummers http://t.co/urqxQBi6NE—
Roger E. A. Farmer (@farmerrf) July 23, 2015
Unemployment rates across OECD member countries
14 Jul 2015 Leave a comment
in Euro crisis, global financial crisis (GFC), great recession, job search and matching, labour economics, macroeconomics, unemployment Tags: unemployment rates
Greek and US great depressions compared
14 Jul 2015 Leave a comment
in business cycles, currency unions, economic growth, economic history, Euro crisis, global financial crisis (GFC), great depression, great recession, job search and matching, labour economics, macroeconomics, unemployment Tags: Greece
https://twitter.com/ianbremmer/status/620570062538309632/photo/1
Greek Depression vs US Depression:
Unemployment http://t.co/81efYi5Ajy—
ian bremmer (@ianbremmer) July 13, 2015
Utopia, you are standing in it! 
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