Did Mass Incarceration Destroy the Black Family? Not exactly. bit.ly/1f8jgXm http://t.co/1q2nKJnU9W—
City Journal (@CityJournal) August 13, 2015
Did Mass Incarceration Destroy the Black Family?
28 Aug 2015 Leave a comment
in discrimination, economics of crime, economics of love and marriage, labour economics, law and economics, politics - New Zealand, population economics, poverty and inequality, unemployment, urban economics, welfare reform Tags: crime and punishment, criminal deterrence, economics of the family, racial discrimination, single mothers, single parents, teen pregnancies
Does the minimum wage increase unemployment?
20 Aug 2015 Leave a comment
in labour economics, minimum wage, unemployment Tags: College premium, compensating differentials, education premium, evidence-based policy, offsetting behaviour, The fatal conceit, The pretence to knowledge, unintended consequences
https://twitter.com/MiltonFriedmanS/status/630956276554444800/photo/1
#Australia:highest minimum wage in OECD relative to purchasing power. Increases #youthunemployment #auspol #jobsearch http://t.co/HML9l2rD7R—
Bob Day (@senatorbobday) August 11, 2015
Incidence of long-term unemployment in the PIGS since 1983
17 Aug 2015 Leave a comment
in business cycles, currency unions, economic growth, economic history, Euro crisis, job search and matching, labour economics, labour supply, macroeconomics, occupational choice, unemployment, unions, welfare reform Tags: employment law, equilibrium unemployment, Greece, Italy, labour market regulation, natural unemployment rate, Portugal, Spain, unemployment duration
The boom that preceded the bust in the Greek economy did nothing for the rate of long-term unemployment among Greeks. Long-term unemployment had been pretty stable prior to the economic boom after joining the euro currency union.
Source: OECD StatExtract.
Nothing much happened to long-term unemployment in Italy or Portugal in recent decades. Spanish long-term unemployment fell in line with the economic boom in Spain over the 1980s and 1990s up until the global financial crisis.
% of unemployment lasting longer than 12 months in Scandinavia since 1976
16 Aug 2015 Leave a comment
in applied welfare economics, business cycles, constitutional political economy, economic history, job search and matching, labour economics, labour supply, macroeconomics, Public Choice, unemployment Tags: borders, deployment subsidies, economics of borders, equilibrium unemployment rate, Finland, labour market programs, long-term unemployment, maps, natural unemployment rate, Norway, Scandinavia, search and matching, Sweden, unemployment durations
As I recall, most unemployed have been unemployed longer than 12 months in Sweden have to go on a labour market program. When they returned to unemployment after the program, the clock starts again. They are deemed to be freshly unemployed rather than adding to the previous spell with an interlude on a make work program. This makes Swedish long-term unemployment data rather unintelligible.
Source: OECD StatExtract.
Finland was recovering from its worst depression since the 1930s and the early 1990s when its data on long-term unemployment started to be continuous. This makes Finnish unemployment data rather difficult to interpret. Norway’s data for the long-term unemployed goes up and down a bit too much to be trustworthy without a background policy narrative.
% of unemployment that is more than 12 months, USA, UK, Germany and France
14 Aug 2015 Leave a comment
in currency unions, Euro crisis, job search and matching, labour economics, labour supply, macroeconomics, unemployment Tags: British economy, equilibrium unemployment rate, France, Germany, long-term unemployment, natural unemployment rate, social insurance, unemployment duration, unemployment insurance, welfare state
As the British labour market and long-term unemployment was starting to get something like that in the USA, the USA started to have unemployment it was more like the European labour markets in terms of the number of long-term unemployed. Nothing much happened in Germany and France.
Source: OECD StatExtract.
Italian unemployment incidence by duration since 1983
12 Aug 2015 Leave a comment
in business cycles, economic history, Euro crisis, job search and matching, labour economics, macroeconomics, unemployment Tags: employment law, equilibrium unemployment rate, Eurosclerosis, Italy, labour market regulation, natural unemployment rate, unemployment duration
Unemployment of more than a year was slowly tapering down in Italy before the global financial crisis, but ever so slowly.
Source: OECD StatExtract.
German unemployment incidence by duration since 1983
11 Aug 2015 Leave a comment
in economic history, Euro crisis, fiscal policy, job search and matching, labour economics, labour supply, macroeconomics, unemployment, welfare reform Tags: equilibrium unemployment rate, Eurosclerosis, German unification, Germany, natural unemployment rate, poverty traps, unemployment duration, unemployment insurance, welfare state
German long term unemployment has been pretty stable albeit with an up-and-down after German unification. There is also a fall in long-term unemployment after some labour market reforms around 2005.
Source: OECD StatExtract.
New Zealand unemployment incidence by duration since 1986
10 Aug 2015 Leave a comment
in business cycles, human capital, job search and matching, labour economics, labour supply, macroeconomics, politics - New Zealand, unemployment Tags: equilibrium unemployment rate, hysteresis, long-term unemployment, natural unemployment rate, unemployment duration, unemployment rates
There has been bit of a wild ride in long-term unemployment in New Zealand. Long-term unemployment – longer than one year – ranging from just over 8% of unemployment in 1986 to nearly 40% in 1992 then down to 5% in 2008. Clearly the duration of unemployment in New Zealand is highly sensitive to the business cycle unlike the case in the USA or UK.
Source: OECD StatExtract.
This sensitivity of long-term unemployment to the business cycle does not bode well for the hypothesis of hysteresis where human capital depreciates the longer a jobseeker is out of employment. For this hypothesis to hold, there must be some enduring aspect of long-term unemployment rather than just going up and down with the business cycle rather noticeably.
The rival hypothesis to hysteresis is the long-term unemployed tend to be those who have a lot of trouble getting employment, which is why they end up been unemployed for a long time. Again in New Zealand, these less employable jobseekers appear to be able to find jobs quite easily when the labour market is good.
Hysteresis in practice, Delong-Summers Variety @delong @LHSummers http://t.co/urqxQBi6NE—
Roger E. A. Farmer (@farmerrf) July 23, 2015
British unemployment incidence by duration since 1983
09 Aug 2015 Leave a comment
in business cycles, economic history, global financial crisis (GFC), job search and matching, labour economics, labour supply, macroeconomics, unemployment Tags: British disease, British economy, equilibrium unemployment rate, Margaret Thatcher, natural unemployment rate, unemployment duration, unemployment rates
In contrast to the USA, there is been a long-term decline in long-term unemployment, that is unemployment of more than a year, in the British economy over the 1990s. The situation then stabilised and then increased after the global financial crisis. There is also a rather rapid fall in long-term unemployment in the mid-1980s as the British economy recovered under Thatchernomics
Source: OECD StatExtract.
This time it is different: unemployment incidence by duration, USA, 1968 – 2014
08 Aug 2015 1 Comment
in budget deficits, great recession, job search and matching, labour economics, labour supply, macroeconomics, politics - USA, unemployment, welfare reform Tags: natural unemployment rate, taxation and labour supply, unemployment duration, unemployment insurance, unemployment rates, welfare state
The Great Recession was the first recession in the USA in a good 40 to 50 years where the composition of employment changed by much. Even the big recession at the beginning of the 1980s did not do much to the composition of unemployment by duration in the USA.
Source: OECD StatExtract.
Those unemployed for more than a year moved from barely double digits even in a bad recession prior to 2008 to coming on one-third of all unemployed. Likewise, those unemployed for less than a month halved from 40% to 20%. Something changed in the US labour market with the Great Recession and the long extensions of unemployment insurance from 26 weeks to 52 weeks and then 99 weeks.
Average duration of unemployment, USA, Canada and Australia, 1968 – 2014
08 Aug 2015 Leave a comment
in business cycles, economic history, global financial crisis (GFC), great recession, job search and matching, labour economics, labour supply, macroeconomics, unemployment Tags: Australia, Canada, unemployment rates
Source: OECD StatExtract.
I have no information as to why there is a sudden surge in the Canadian unemployment duration rate in 2001.
Unemployment rates and the minimum wage in the European Union
08 Aug 2015 Leave a comment
in Euro crisis, job search and matching, labour economics, macroeconomics, minimum wage, unemployment Tags: employment law, equilibrium unemployment rates, Eurosclerosis, expressive voting, labour market regulation, natural unemployment rate, offsetting behaviour, rational irrationality, unintended consequences
Australian unemployment incidence by duration since 1978
07 Aug 2015 Leave a comment
in economic history, global financial crisis (GFC), job search and matching, labour economics, labour supply, macroeconomics, politics - New Zealand, unemployment Tags: Australia, equilibrium unemployment rate, natural unemployment rate, unemployment duration
As with New Zealand, Australian long-term unemployment seems to go up and down quite a lot with recessions such as those in the early 1980s and early 1990s but not after the global financial crisis.
Source: OECD StatExtract.
French unemployment incidence by duration since 1983
05 Aug 2015 Leave a comment
in economic history, Euro crisis, job search and matching, labour economics, labour supply, macroeconomics, unemployment Tags: employment law, equilibrium unemployment rate, France, labour market regulation, natural unemployment rate, unemployment duration
Nothing really changes in France recently unemployment duration. Italian labour market is notorious for having very low inflows and outflows from employment and unemployment.
Source: OECD StatExtract.
Did fiscal austerity in 2010 have credible academic support?
05 Aug 2015 1 Comment
#Greece austerity gauge. Greek government spending has fallen 20% since 2008. In UK and Italy it's up. #GreekCrisis http://t.co/WMQBxxVFqq—
RBS Economics (@RBS_Economics) July 07, 2015
One measure of the scale of austerity in Greece…and other advanced economies. http://t.co/PxCLagdd3L—
RBS Economics (@RBS_Economics) July 06, 2015
The employment level in #Greece is back to where it was in 1985. It's the equivalent of the UK losing 6 million jobs. http://t.co/AAWHMEFwfK—
RBS Economics (@RBS_Economics) July 06, 2015
Utopia, you are standing in it! 
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