Who becomes a social scientist?

The dangers of different modes of transport

The benefits and costs of the @NZSuperFund since its inception

The New Zealand Superannuation Fund, the sovereign wealth fund part funding New Zealand’s old-age pension from 2029/2030 onwards, has been a bit of a wild ride. Sometimes the earnings of the Fund were well below and sometimes earning well above the long-term bond rate.

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Source: New Zealand Superannuation Fund Annual Report 2014.

Since its inception, the Fund earned an average annual return of 9.78%, which was 5.06% above the long-term bond rate, and 1.03% above its reference portfolio.

No information was given in the annual report of the New Zealand Superannuation Fund on the marginal dead weight cost of the taxes raised to fund the New Zealand Superannuation Fund to see whether there is any net benefit to taxpayers from its establishment and continued operation.

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The New Zealand Government has contributed $14.88 billion to the fund from prior its inception in 2001 to the suspension of contributions in 2009 by the incoming National Party Government.

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Source: New Zealand Treasury.

Over the nine years in which contributions were made, the company tax rate of 28% could have easily been up to 10 percentage points lower.

The New Zealand Treasury estimates that a one percentage point cut in the company tax costs about $220 million in forgone revenue if there are no other changes to the tax system. These are static estimates that do not include any feedback from  greater investment and higher growth.

The New Zealand Superannuation Fund must beat the market every single year to make up for the deadweight cost of its funding, a premium for the investment risk added to the Crown’s portfolio and the cost to New Zealand’s growth rate of higher than otherwise taxes on income, entrepreneurship and investment.

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Source: Abolish the Corporate Income Tax – The New York Times.

Incidence of long-term unemployment in the PIGS since 1983

The boom that preceded the bust in the Greek economy did nothing for the rate of long-term unemployment among Greeks. Long-term unemployment had been pretty stable prior to the economic boom after joining the euro currency union.

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Source: OECD StatExtract.

Nothing much happened to long-term unemployment in Italy or Portugal in recent decades. Spanish long-term unemployment fell in line with the economic boom in Spain over the 1980s and 1990s up until the global financial crisis.

Collective-bargaining agreement coverage and union density rates, major economies, latest available data

In the USA, UK, Australia, New Zealand, and Canada, if you want to be covered by a union collective-bargaining agreement, join a union. Does not seem to matter if you are a union member in France, Germany, Portugal, Spain and the Netherlands and to a lesser extent Italy because you is covered by collective bargaining agreements in most jobs.

Source: OECD estimates and J. Visser, Amsterdam Institute for Advanced Labour Studies (2011), ICTWSS Database on Institutions, Coordination, Trade Unions, Wage Setting and Social Pacts (version 3.0) in OECD (2013) Economic Policy Reforms 2013: Going for Growth.

In the Nordic countries, it runs the other way with most workers covered by collective bargaining agreement but also are union members.

What if French and Americans swapped working hours per year

US Teen Pregnancy, Birth and Abortion Rates

% of unemployment lasting longer than 12 months in Scandinavia since 1976

As I recall, most unemployed have been unemployed longer than 12 months in Sweden have to go on a labour market program. When they returned to unemployment after the program, the clock starts again. They are deemed to be freshly unemployed rather than adding to the previous spell with an interlude on a make work program. This makes Swedish long-term unemployment data rather unintelligible.

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Source: OECD StatExtract.

Finland was recovering from its worst depression since the 1930s and the early 1990s when its data on long-term unemployment started to be continuous. This makes Finnish unemployment data rather difficult to interpret. Norway’s data for the long-term unemployed goes up and down a bit too much to be trustworthy without a background policy narrative.

@DandLMitchell Lindsey Mitchell on poverty

Another aspect of helicopter parenting

Union density rates in Scandinavia since 1960

Union membership has been very high all the time in Norway, Sweden, Denmark and Finland.

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Source: OECD Stat Extract.

Director’s Law in New Zealand?

One group with negative net tax liability is low- to middle-income households with dependent children. For example, single-earner families with two children can earn up to around $60,000 pa before they pay any net tax.

Around half of all households with children receive more in welfare benefits and tax credits than they pay in income tax.

Bryan Perry (2015, p. 41)

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% of unemployment that is more than 12 months, USA, UK, Germany and France

As the British labour market and long-term unemployment was starting to get something like that in the USA, the USA started to have unemployment it was more like the European labour markets in terms of the number of long-term unemployed. Nothing much happened in Germany and France.

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Source: OECD StatExtract.

Gender politics on college campuses

Union density rates in Germany, France and Italy

There are large differences in unionisation rates between the three countries. France has always had low levels of unionisation which halved since the 1970s. Italy had a sharp boost in union membership in the number of unions in the 1960s and 70s. This may have been associated with increased urbanisation. Union membership rate stayed pretty high in Italy ever since with a small taper downwards. Germany had stable unionisation rates prior to German unification after which the numbers about halved up in a slow taper.

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Source: OECD Stat Extract.

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